Friday, July 24, 2020

CDC Updated (July 23rd) COVID-19 Forecasts: Cumulative Deaths & Hospitalizations


#15,380

The CDC has updated its weekly (4 week) forecast for COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, and while their remains a high degree of variance between the individual models, they continue to show an upward trend across both key metrics over the next month.

All of these models are based on various assumptions about social distancing, disease transmission rates, and local compliance with recommended control measures, and should therefore be taken with a hefty grain of salt.

First stop, forecasts for national and state numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next 4 weeks, based on 7 national and 8 state models. Last week's forecast had estimates of daily hospitalizations (4,500 to 13,000) by August 10th. 

This week's forecast drops the lower bounds to 2,000 but keeps the 13,000 upper limit. 
Updated July 23, 2020
 
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
  • This week, five national forecasts suggest an increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, while two other forecasts predict stable numbers or slight declines. On August 17, the forecasts estimate 2,000 to 13,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.
  • State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors.  Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing.
National Forecasts


 







 
  • The seven national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • The forecasts make different assumptions about hospitalization rates and levels of social distancing and other interventions and use different methods to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. See models below for details.
State Forecasts

Eight state-level models predicting the number of new hospitalizations were submitted this week. These forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in each state. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 cases occurring per day in each state.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[1 MB, 7 pages]1

Download forecast data excel icon[2 MB]
         (Continue . . . .)
 
Next up, the expected number of cumulative National and state COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks, based on 26 individual national forecasts. Last week's estimate, by August 8th, was 150,000 to 170,000 deaths.

Updated July 23, 2020
 
Observed and forecasted cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 20, 2020.
 
Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
  • This week CDC received 26 individual national forecasts.
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts there will likely be between 160,000 and 175,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 15th.
  • National and state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next 4 weeks will likely exceed the number reported over the last 4 weeks for the US overall, as well as in 25 states and 1 territory. The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah.
National Forecast

  • The figure shows cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.  See model descriptions below for details.
State Forecasts

State-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:
  • The Columbia-UNC, COVID19Sim, ERDC, Geneva, GT-DeepCOVID, ISU, LANL, LSHTM, MIT-CovAlliance, MIT-ORC, MOBS, Oliver Wyman, NotreDame-Mobility, QJHong, STH, UA, UM, UMass-MB, USC, and UT forecasts assume that existing control measures will remain in place during the prediction period.
  • The Columbia, GT-CHHS, IHME, JHU, NotreDame-FRED, PSI, UCLA, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
Download state forecasts pdf icon[12 pages]

Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]


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