#15,344
The CDC has published their latest forecast for COVID-19 related deaths through July 25th, and as one might expect given the recent rise in confirmed cases, the predicted death toll continues to rise.
A week ago, the forecast was for between between 130,000 and 150,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 18th. Today's forecast, which is extended a week to July 25th, adds 10,000 cases to both the high and low estimate.
These are just forecasts, and should be interpreted cautiously, as they are based on assumptions about social distancing, disease transmission rates, and local compliance with recommended control measures.
All of which are highly variable, and subject to change.
And while important metrics, deaths (and hospitalizations) don't begin to tell the full story of the impact of COVID-19. As the outbreak continues there are increasing reports of long-term sequelae resulting from infection with SARS-CoV-2, which in some cases can include heart, lung, and neurological damage.
Forecasts of Total Deaths
Updated July 2, 2020
Observed and forecasted cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths as of June 29, 2020.
Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
- This week CDC received 24 individual national forecasts.
- This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 25th.
- The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks. For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar to the number seen in the previous four weeks or to decrease slightly.
National Forecast
- The figure shows cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.
Forecasts fall into one of two categories
- The Auquan, CAN, ERDC, GT-DeepCOVID, Imperial, ISU, LANL, LSHTM, MIT-CovAlliance, MIT-ORC, MOBS, Oliver Wyman, NotreDame-Mobility, SWC, UA, UMass-MB, USC, and UT forecasts assume that existing control measures will remain in place during the prediction period.
- The Columbia, Covid19Sim, GT-CHHS, IHME, JHU, NotreDame-FRED, PSI, UCLA, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
