Friday, July 10, 2020

CDC Updated (July 9th) COVID-19 Forecasts: Cumulative Deaths & Hospitalizations




#15,355

The CDC has updated its weekly (4 week) forecast for COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, and while their remains a high degree of variance in the models, they provide some idea of what we should expect from the pandemic in the short term.

These models are based on various assumptions about social distancing, disease transmission rates, and local compliance with recommended control measures, and should therefore be taken with a large grain of salt.

First up, forecasts for national and state numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next 4 weeks, based on 6 national and 7 state models.  

Last week's forecast had a 15-fold difference between the high and low estimates of daily hospitalizations (1,000 - 15,000) a month from now. Today's forecast raises the lower estimate (n=2000) and lowers the higher estimate (n=10,000), narrowing the gap considerably.

Updated July 9, 2020
 
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
  • This week, three national forecasts suggest an increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, while three other forecasts predict stable numbers. On August 3, the forecasts estimate 2,000 to 10,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.
  • State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors. Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing. 
National Forecasts
  • The six national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • The forecasts make different assumptions about hospitalization rates and levels of social distancing and other interventions and use different methods to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. See models below for details.
State Forecasts

Seven state-level models predicting the number of new hospitalizations were submitted this week. These forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in each state. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 cases occurring per day in each state.


          (Continue . . . . )


Next up, the expected number of cumulative National and state COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks, based on 23 individual national forecasts.

Last week's estimate (ending July 25th), was for between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths, and this week's forecast is unchanged through August 1st.

This leveling off in deaths is likely due to a much younger age group being infected over the past few weeks.  People under the age of 60 are far less likely to die from the disease, although some can have severe illness, and experience significant sequelae. 

Updated July 9, 2020
Observed and forecasted cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 6, 2020.
Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
  • This week CDC received 23 individual national forecasts.
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that there will likely be between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 1st.
  • The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and West Virginia, will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks. For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar to the number seen in the previous four weeks or to decrease slightly.
National Forecast
National forecast as of 7/6/2020
  • The figure shows cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.
Forecasts fall into one of two categories
  • The Auquan, CAN, Columbia-UNC, ERDC, GT-DeepCOVID, LANL, LSHTM, MIT-CovAlliance, MIT-ORC, MOBS, Oliver Wyman, NotreDame-Mobility, QJHong, UA, UM, UMass-MB, USC, and UT forecasts assume that existing control measures will remain in place during the prediction period.
  • The Columbia, GT-CHHS, IHME, JHU, NotreDame-FRED, PSI, UCLA, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
 

 
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