#15,406
The CDC continues to expand, and hopefully improve, their (4 week) forecasts for COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations. The CDC's Forecasts of COVID-19 Deaths this week incorporates a record 34 different modeling groups, and last week added a new feature; forecasts of new deaths in addition to forecasts of total deaths.
Their 4 week hospitalization forecast - which is newer, and less robust than the deaths forecast - utilizes just 8 modeling groups, and continues to produce a wider range of results.
All of these models are based on different assumptions about social distancing, disease transmission rates, and local compliance with recommended control measures, and therefore often come up with widely varying `solutions'.
While important gauges of the intensity and trajectory of the pandemic, deaths and hospitalizations don't begin to tell the full story of the impact of COVID-19. We continue to see reports of very slow return to usual health, and studies showing potentially permanent heart and lung damage among some `recovered' COVID cases. There are also concerns over the diseases's impact on pregnant women and their unborn child, and reports of lingering neurological manifestations among survivors.
Our first stop today, the CDC's forecast on COVID-19 Deaths:
COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Updated Aug. 6, 2020
Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of August 3, 2020.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 34 modeling groups. Those forecasts predict:Of the 34 modeling groups, 31 provided forecasts of both new and total deaths, one provided forecasts of new deaths only, and two provided forecasts of total deaths only.
- The number of new COVID-19 deaths reported each week (32 forecasts), which indicates how reported deaths are likely to increase or decrease in the coming weeks
- The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of each week (33 forecasts), which helps us understand the likely overall impact of the pandemic in the coming weeks
National Forecast
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 4,500 to 10,600 new deaths reported during the week ending August 29. The ensemble forecast predicts that 175,000 to 190,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 29.
- State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in Hawaii and Puerto Rico and may decrease in Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, the Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and the Virgin Islands.
- The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from May 30 through August 1 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through August 29.
- The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from May 30 through August 1 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through August 29.
Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level new and cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.
Forecasts fall into one of two categories:
- The Auquan, CMU, DDS, Columbia-UNC, ERDC, ESG, Geneva, GT-DeepCOVID, ISU, Karlen, LANL, LNQ, LSHTM, MIT-CovAlliance, MIT-ORC, MOBS, Oliver Wyman, NotreDame-Mobility, QJHong, RPI-UW, STH, UA, UCM, UM, UMass-MB, USC, and UT forecasts assume that existing control measures will remain in place during the prediction period.
- The Columbia, COVID19Sim, GT-CHHS, IHME, JCB, JHU, NotreDame-FRED, PSI, UCLA, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
Download state forecasts pdf icon[29 pages]1
Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]
(Continue . . .)
Our second stop is this week's hospitalization forecast.
COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations
Updated Aug. 5, 2020
Interpretation of Forecasts of New HospitalizationsNational Forecast
- This week, three national forecasts predict a likely increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, two forecasts predict a likely decline, and three forecasts are either uncertain about the direction of the trend or predict stable numbers. For August 31, the forecasts estimate 2,000 to 12,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.
- State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors. Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing.
- The eight national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
- The forecasts make different assumptions about hospitalization rates and levels of social distancing and other interventions and use different methods to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. See models below for details.
State Forecasts
Nine state-level models predicting the number of new hospitalizations were submitted this week. These forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in each state. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 cases occurring per day in each state.
Download state forecasts pdf icon[1 MB, 7 pages]1
Download forecast data excel icon[2 MB]
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.
