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Their 4 week hospitalization forecast - which is newer, and less robust than the deaths forecast - utilizes just 8 modeling groups, and continues to produce a wider range of results.
All of these models are based on different assumptions about social distancing, disease transmission rates, and local compliance with recommended control measures, and therefore often come up with widely varying `solutions'.
Rather than trying to pick a winner, the charts below show the individual model ranges, along with a `consensus' forecast by the CDC. These weighted averages, while useful, should nonetheless be taken with a sizable grain of salt.
Updated July 31, 2020As of July 31, 2020, the Forecasts of COVID-19 Deaths webpage includes forecasts of new deaths in addition to forecasts of total deaths.Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 27, 2020.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
- This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 32 modeling groups. Those forecasts predict:
Of the 32 modeling groups, 30 provided forecasts of both new and total deaths, one provided a forecast of new deaths only, and one provided a forecast of total deaths only.
- The number of new COVID-19 deaths reported each week (31 forecasts), which indicates how reported deaths are likely to increase or decrease in the coming weeks
- The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of each week (31 forecasts), which helps us understand the likely overall impact of the pandemic in the coming weeks
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may increase over the next month, with 5,000 to 11,000 new deaths reported during the week ending August 22. The ensemble forecast predicts that 168,000 to 182,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 22.
- State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in: Alabama, Kentucky, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, and Washington.
National Forecast
- The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from May 16 through July 25 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through August 22.
- The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from May 16 through July 25 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through August 22.
Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.
State ForecastsState-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level new and cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.Forecasts fall into one of two categories:
- The CMU, DDS, Columbia-UNC, ERDC, ESG, Geneva, GT-DeepCOVID, ISU, Karlen, LANL, LNQ, LSHTM, MIT-CovAlliance, MIT-ORC, MOBS, Oliver Wyman, NotreDame-Mobility, QJHong, STH, UA, UCM, UM, UMass-MB, USC, and UT forecasts assume that existing control measures will remain in place during the prediction period.
- The Columbia, COVID19Sim, GT-CHHS, IHME, JCB, JHU, NotreDame-FRED, PSI, UCLA, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub
As mentioned earlier, hospitalization forecasting is less mature, and tends to produce a wider range of `solutions'.
In fairness, however, knowing the number of people hospitalized today helps enormously in calculating future deaths, while projecting the number of hospitalizations a month from now is based largely upon social distancing compliance by the general public.
This week, expected hospitalizations 4 weeks from now range anywhere from 2,000 to 13,000 per day.
This week, five national forecasts predict a likely increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, one forecast predicts a likely decline, and two forecasts predict stable numbers. For August 24, the forecasts estimate 2,000 to 13,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.
State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors. Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing.
National Forecasts
National Forecast for 7-27-2020
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- The eight national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
- The forecasts make different assumptions about hospitalization rates and levels of social distancing and other interventions and use different methods to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. See models below for details.
State Forecasts
Nine state-level models predicting the number of new hospitalizations were submitted this week. These forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in each state. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 cases occurring per day in each state.Download state forecasts [1 MB, 7 pages]1Download forecast data [2 MB]Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub .
