Thursday, September 10, 2020

La Niña Declared & The `Pique' Of Hurricane Season









#15,448

Today, September 10th, is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but with 17 named storms and no shortage of proto-storms on the horizon, this year's milestone is more irritating than usual; making this the `pique' of hurricane season as well. 

Complicating matters, today the National Weather Service made it official and issued an ENSO Alert : La Niña Advisory. 

Simply put, La Niña conditions in the Pacific are generally conducive to a more active Atlantic Hurricane season, while El Niño is generally associated with a less active season. The Pacific has been in an ENSO neutral condition for months, but has been trending towards La Niña since early summer. 

In addition, La Niña typically brings colder, wetter winters in the northern United States, but dryer and warmer conditions in the south and west, raising concerns it may extend and exacerbate this year's wildfire season in the west. 

Despite the insanely busy 5-day tropical outlook map at the top of this blog, there are currently no immediate threats to the United States or the Caribbean.  The two named storms (Paulette & Rene) are expected to turn north and die at sea. 

While YouTube weather `faux-casters' often promote scary long range (10 to 16 day) models for click bait purposes, anything beyond 7 days is generally unreliable.  

That said, with almost half the hurricane season still ahead of us - and conditions in the Atlantic only likely to improve in the coming weeks - the smart money is on preparing for the worst.  We are on track for a record hurricane season, and the odds favor at least a couple making landfall over the next month or two. 

To get you started, my May 2020 series on Hurricane prep.

 

Posted by at