https://poweroutage.us/area/state/louisiana
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Note: This is day 6 of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.
This month, as part of NPM20, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.
Eleven days after Cat 4 hurricane Laura battered Southwest Louisiana more than 100,000 customers across a wide swath of the state remain without electricity, and many of those can expect several more hot, humid, and trying weeks before power can be restored.
Entergy reports `. . . damage to approximately 1,000 transmission structures, 6,600 broken poles, 330 miles of downed distribution wire and nearly 2,900 transformers. Due to the extensive damage, the transmission and distribution systems will require nearly a complete rebuild in this area.'
Due to extensive damage, residents of four Parishes (Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, and Jefferson Davis) have only been told that restoration times are yet to be determined.
- Roughly 1,000 miles due north, Iowa has only recently recovered from a Derecho (August 10th) that knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people, leaving many in the dark for more than a week.
- Meanwhile, California is facing rolling blackouts today due to extreme demand, and more than 15,000 customers were without power in San Diego last night.
And between our aging electrical infrastructure and increasing power demands, matters are likely only to get worse.Every four years the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) releases a report card on America’s infrastructure, and their most recent report (2017) warns that our cumulative GPA for infrastructure sits at only a D+, and two of our most vulnerable infrastructures are drinking water and the electrical grid (see When Our Modern Infrastructure Fails). For Energy, which they rate as a D+, they warn:
Overview
Much of the U.S. energy system predates the turn of the 21st century. Most electric transmission and distribution lines were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s with a 50-year life expectancy, and the more than 640,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines in the lower 48 states’ power grids are at full capacity. Energy infrastructure is undergoing increased investment to ensure long-term capacity and sustainability; in 2015, 40% of additional power generation came from natural gas and renewable systems. Without greater attention to aging equipment, capacity bottlenecks, and increased demand, as well as increasing storm and climate impacts, Americans will likely experience longer and more frequent power interruptions.
In December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.
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| https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=819354 |
What is a catastrophic power outage?• Events beyond modern experience that exhaust or exceed mutual aid capabilities
• Likely to be no-notice or limited-notice events that could be complicated by a cyber-physical attack
• Long duration, lasting several weeks to months due to physical infrastructure damage
• Affects a broad geographic area, covering multiple states or regions and affecting tens of millions of people
• Causes severe cascading impacts that force critical sectors—drinking water and wastewater systems, communications, transportation, healthcare, and financial services—to operate in a degraded state
(Excerpt From Dec 2018 NIAC Report)
While the NIAC report and Koppel's book both concentrate on a deliberate cyber or physical attack on the grid, there are other plausible ways the grid could fail, and the outcome would be every bit as bad (or perhaps, even worse).
Perhaps the most worrisome is a `Carrington-class' Solar storm.According to NASA, we actually came very close to seeing it happen in 2012 (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012). We've a report and a 4 minute video from NASA explaining earth's close call, then I'll return with more.
Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012
July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.
Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.
"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado.
(Snip)
A ScienceCast video recounts the near-miss of a solar superstorm in July 2012.
Play it
(Continue . . . )
In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. They wrote:
While a severe storm is a low-probability event, it has the potential for long-duration catastrophic impacts to the power grid and its affected users. The impacts could persist for multiple years with a potential for significant societal impacts and with economic costs that could be measurable in the several trillion dollars per year range.
FEMA takes these solar storms seriously, and in 2010 held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the (then) upcoming solar maximum. According to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate back in 2011, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.
While we are currently in solar minimum, the sun is slowly waking up for Solar Cycle 25, and the risks of large solar flares will only increase over the next few years.
And to all of this we can add the very real threat of an EMP attack; literally a high altitude detonation of a nuclear device over the center of the country which could burn out electronics (and the grid) from coast-to-coast in the blink of an eye.
While hopefully this will remain among the lowest probability events, this week the Department of Homeland Security updated their EMP Program Status report.
DHS Combats Potential Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack
Release Date:
September 3, 2020
Releases: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Program Status Report
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) continues to prepare against ever evolving threats against the American homeland, most recently highlighting efforts to combat an Electromagnetic Pulse attack which could disrupt the electrical grid and potentially damage electronics. Today, the department is releasing the Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Program Status Report as part of an update on efforts underway in support of Executive Order (E.O.) 13865 on Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses. E.O. 13865 establishes resilience and security standards for U.S. critical infrastructure as a national priority.
Regardless of how it happens (natural or deliberate), or the scale (local, regional, national), our fragile power grid is the Achilles heel of our nation, and our economy.
Without electricity, water and gasoline doesn’t pump, elevators and air conditioners don’t run, ATM machines and banks close, grocery stores can’t take debit or credit cards, perishable food rots, communications and supply chains collapse, and everything from cooking, to flushing toilets, becomes a major challenge.
While some scenarios - like an EMP attack - are frankly too overwhelming for the average person to prepare for, there are plenty of less severe grid down scenarios that can be partially mitigated by a modicum of individual preparedness.
Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard. Preparedness can not only make that process possible, it can make it less miserable as well.
So . . . if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . do you already have:
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
Last May, in My New Solar Power System (Updated For 2020), I outlined my `off-the-shelf' low cost solar power solution for prolonged power outages (see photo below); one that provides fans, lights, communications, and limited power for other low-power devices (cell phones, tablets, etc.).
In June, I described my `home-brew' solar/CPAP power station in My New (And Improved) Solar Battery Project (for CPAP). Although neither of these solutions will run air-conditioning, refrigerators, or big screen TVs, they nevertheless can provide useful amounts of power during a prolonged grid down disaster.
Whether you go with a USB system, buy a `solar generator' - or build an `old school' system like mine - having the ability to generate and store electricity can reduce a prolonged power outage from being a genuine emergency to more of an inconvenience.But if you want to be prepared for the next grid down emergency, you need to invest the time and money now, before the next threat appears on the horizon. Once it become apparent, it is usually too late to do anything about it.
