Avian Flu Diary: NHC: T.D. 19 Expected To Become A Hurricane And Threaten Northern Gulf Mid-Week

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Although only upgraded to a tropical depression (#19) overnight, the disturbance crossing the southern tip of Florida this morning has the `look' of a contender, and is expected to become a hurricane before it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast in about 4 days.

Key messages from the 11 am Advisory read:

Forecast positions and wind speeds from the 11 am NHC Discussion:

Regardless of the wind speed at landfall, this storm is expected to be slow moving and a heavy rain producer. Both storm surge and fresh water flooding could be major factors. While it is too soon to focus on the exact landfall of this storm, residents from the western panhandle of Florida to Louisiana should be following this storm closely.

This from NWS NOLA:

Tropical Depression 19 is expected to cross South Florida and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. TD 19 should then continue to the northwest through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. This system has the potential to impact the area - including heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, gusty winds, and higher than normal tides including minor coastal flooding. Confidence on exact impacts will become more clear later this weekend so stay tuned.

While this blog, and many other internet sources will cover this year's hurricane season (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and find Mike's Weather page an invaluable resource), your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes you may wish to revisit: