September Tropical Climatology & NHC 5-Day Outlook

Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes

June too soon.

July stand by.

August look out you must.

September remember.

October all over.

- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898

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Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to the end of November, most years the bulk of hurricane activity occurs during the month of September and the first half of October. By September 8th, we are typically on our 6th named storm, but this year we have already seen 17. 

We've essentially already seen a full season's worth of storms during the the first 3 months, and the forecast is for more to come.  In fact, we may be looking at a modern record before the season ends. 

While there are no immediate threats to the United States, we are watching an area of suspicion that could impact the Carolinas this weekend, and a couple of tropical storms in the eastern Atlantic.  Our current respite is likely to be short-lived, however. 

Early season storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean, but as ocean temperatures continue to rise late into summer, and winds aloft become more favorable, hurricanes tend to form farther to the east, giving them more time grow before encountering land (see below).

Credit NOAA’s  Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

September is when the Cape Verde basin awakens and begins to produce what often turn into the largest and most persistent storms. Right now, two Cape Verde storms (Paulette & Rene) are tracking west, and 3rd is likely to form in the next couple of days. 

The good news is, not all of these storms continue to march west towards the islands of the Caribbean or the Continental United States. Many turn north, and spend their lives at sea before dying over colder waters.

But in a busy year, several are likely to travel far enough west to make landfall, and this is an extremely busy year.   

With the forecast calling for a good deal of activity ahead and a concurrent pandemic to complicate matters,  this year - perhaps more than any other - it is important to be prepared before the next storm threatens (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different').

As we've discussed so often in the past you don't have to live right on the coast to be affected by a land falling hurricane.  High winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes can occur hundreds of miles inland.

From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information

So, if you haven't already done so, plan a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation  2020's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes  you may wish to revisit:

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 - Help Your Neighbors

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan

National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk

Hurricane Preparedness Week 2020

 

As a personal note, 60 years ago this week, as a 6 year-old living on the west coast of Florida, I rode through my first hurricane.

The storm was Hurricane Donna, which not only laid an oak tree across our roof, but went into the record books as being the only hurricane to cause hurricane force winds in every east coast state from Florida to Maine (and into Canada). 

After Donna - like practically every other kid growing up in Florida - I kept a hurricane tracking map on my bedroom wall, getting the latest coordinates from weather legend Roy Leep on WTVT. 

Over my next formative decade a number of other storms would cross my path, including:

My experiences during Hurricane Agnes in 1972 essentially launched my career as an EMT, and later a paramedic.  All of which has subsequently led to my `prepper' lifestyle. 

Proving, I guess, that we are all products of our environment.