Avian Flu Diary: NHC Watching Caribbean & October Tropical Climatology

Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes

June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.

- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898

#15,484

Despite the famous advice offered more than 6-score years ago to mariners, we are only 2/3rds of the way through our very active 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the odds favor several more named storms before we're done.

We've already exhausted the English alphabet of storm names, and are now on the 3rd letter of the Greek alphabet (Gamma), making this the 2nd most active hurricane season on record.

And this morning, the National Hurricane Center is eyeing a disturbance in the Caribbean they are giving an 80% chance of developing over the next 5 days as it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico.

From their 2 am outlook:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southeast of Jamaica. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system should move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today and Monday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Whether this system becomes Delta, and what land areas it might impact, are unknown - but this is the time of year when we expect to see the focus of tropical development to shift back from the Eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico where the waters are still warm, and the wind shear is often low.

Although we are now well past the peak of hurricane season, October has a legacy of producing some remarkable storms, including Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018, and Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Other notables include Hurricane Wilma - which struck Miami in 2005 - and Hurricane Mitch, which killed roughly 11,000 people in Central America in 1998.

While hopefully the worst of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is past us, this is one year I wouldn't bet against throwing us a late season curve ball.

If you live anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf Coast, or in the Caribbean or Central America, it is too soon to let down your guard. If you aren't already prepared for an unwanted tropical intruder, you may wish to revisit my hurricane prep list below.