#15,658
Over the past 24 hours several more countries have reported the UK Variant of the SAR-CoV-2 virus, including Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Canada (see BBC Report Coronavirus: Cases of new variant appear worldwide), cementing the fact that this new strain has already spread widely.
There is still considerable debate and uncertainty over the impact that this variant could have on the pandemic, with many researchers and governments quick to point out there is no evidence that this new variant produces a more severe illness than previous strains, or that it would evade the vaccine.
Last Wednesday, however - in PrePrint: Estimated Transmissibility & Severity Of UK SARS-CoV-2 Variant - CMMID - we looked at an early analysis from the Centre for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), that stated:
We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants.
Even assuming the pathogenicity remains roughly the same, a more easily transmitted virus would be more difficult to control using NPIs (Non-pharmaceutical Interventions), and has a greater potential to overwhelm some medical delivery services.
Hence some of the extreme actions we've seen order by governments in order to reduce its spread (see Japan Bans Entry To All Foreign Nationals Over COVID Variant Fears).
Five days ago, in CDC: Implications of the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variant VUI 202012/01, the CDC acknowledged that this variant could already be in the United States, but has yet to be confirmed, possibly due to a lack of genetic sequencing of positive tests.
The VUI 202012/01 variant has not been identified through sequencing efforts in the United States, although viruses have only been sequenced from about 51,000 of the 17 million US cases. Ongoing travel between the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the high prevalence of this variant among current UK infections, increase the likelihood of importation. Given the small fraction of US infections that have been sequenced, the variant could already be in the United States without having been detected.
Yesterday, public health officials in Ontario, Canada announced their first detection of the variant, in a couple in Southern Ontario, who reportedly had no recent travel outside of Canada, or high risk contact.
This statement from PHAC (Public Health Agency of Canada).
Statement on the variants of COVID-19 virus found in Ontario
From: Public Health Agency of Canada
Statement
December 26, 2020 Ottawa, ON Public Health Agency of Canada
The Government of Canada has a monitoring program in place with the provinces and territories to identify new COVID-19 variants in Canada, such as the ones identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa.
While early data suggests that these new variants may be more transmissible, to date there is no evidence that they cause more severe disease or have any impact on antibody response or vaccine effectiveness. More research is required to confirm these findings and the Canadian and global medical, public health and research communities are actively evaluating these mutations.
The Public Health Agency of Canada’s (PHAC) National Microbiology Laboratory monitors Canadian cases of COVID-19 with the provinces and territories through ongoing analysis of genomic databases in Canada. Through this ongoing national monitoring, two confirmed cases have been identified in Ontario of the variant observed in the United Kingdom.
As the monitoring continues, it is expected that other cases of this variant and other variants of concern may be found in Canada. Furthermore, as these two cases did not travel outside of Canada, it is important to follow public health measures and limit contacts with others, to reduce the transmission of the virus and any of its variants in communities. The best way to prevent infection with any variant of COVID-19 is to follow public health measures.
To reduce the risk of importation of the virus and any of its variants, Canada has had travel restrictions and border measures in place since March 2020, including mandatory quarantine. These rigorous quarantine measures are among some of the strongest in the world. Under 2% of all cases reported in Canada are from those who travelled outside of Canada.
All travellers must present their quarantine plan to the Quarantine Officer at the point of entry to Canada, and those with an inadequate plan are directed to a federal quarantine facility. PHAC monitors travellers’ compliance with quarantine and uses law enforcement officers to verify compliance during the 14-day quarantine. Individuals who are not complying with the quarantine requirements can face fines of up to $750,000 or six months in prison.
On December 20, in response to concerns about the UK COVID-19 variant, the Government of Canada also suspended all flights from the United Kingdom for 72 hours, subsequently extended until January 6, at 11:59pm. Travellers are since being asked additional health screening questions to help identify if their travel itinerary included a country of concern reporting this variant in the last 14 days prior to appearing at a Canadian port of entry.
All travellers will have their quarantine plan reviewed by a Quarantine Officer, and if not suitable, will be asked to quarantine in a federal quarantine centre. Travellers who arrived in Canada from a country of concern prior to December 20 are reminded to complete their full quarantine period, and to get tested even if symptoms are mild and report their travel history to local assessment centres.
The Government of Canada continues to advise against non-essential travel to other countries and are advising extra caution if you must travel to the United Kingdom or South Africa. Restrictions are changing quickly and may be imposed by countries with little warning, disrupting travel plans. Should individuals choose to take non-essential travel outside Canada, they may be forced to remain outside of Canada longer than expected.
While all eyes are currently on the UK variant, we have similar reports of another variant which has emerged in South Africa (see PrePrint: Emergence & Rapid Spread of a New SARS-CoV-2 Lineage with Multiple Spike Mutations in South Africa), which is sparking similar concerns.
It is inevitable that additional COVID variants will emerge over the weeks and months ahead around the world. Viruses evolve, it's as simple as that. Most will do little to enhance the virus, and will likely fail to thrive, while others may even help diminish the pandemic's impact.
But we are in this pandemic because a series of evolutionary changes to a (likely) bat-borne coronavirus made it into a zoonotic pathogen. And further evolutionary changes - after it reached Europe last winter (see Scripps Research Institute: SARS-CoV-2 and the D614G Mutation) - increased its transmissibility in humans.
Now, if researchers in the UK are right about this variant's increased transmissibility, the virus has upped the ante once more.
This COVID pandemic has surprised us again and again over the past 12 months. We would be foolish not to prepare for additional surprises going forward.
