Saturday, January 23, 2021

CDC: Updated B.1.1.7 COVID Variants In The United States (n=195)

Interactive map : 22 states reporting 195 cases

#15,739

Overnight the CDC published their latest update on the number of B.1.1.7 (aka `UK') variant viruses detected across the nation, and while the majority of states (n=28) have yet to report cases, the absence of evidence is once again, not necessarily the evidence of absence. 

It is a pretty fair assumption that the B.1.1.7 variant has made inroads across much of the nation, despite the lack of confirmed reports. 

Surveillance and genomic testing for variants varies widely across the nation, so while California (n=72 cases) and Florida (n=50 cases) account for more than half of all detections, that may simply reflect how aggressive they are in testing for the variant.

There are other variants of concern (VOCs) such as the 501Y.V2 (South African), Brazil's P.1. and California's CAL.20C which are not currently being reported on a nationwide scale, but may prove even more problematic down the road. 

A little over a week ago, in MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021, we looked at forecasts that the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant could become dominant in the United States by March.  

When coupled with yesterday's announcement from the UK government that B.1.1.7 might be be linked to 30%-40% higher mortality (see UK: NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7), the UK variant is rightfully viewed as the most immediate threat. 

The emergence of multiple new, and concerning, COVID variants over the past few months, along with the perceived increased severity of B.1.1.7, are reminders of why it is folly to let this virus rip through the community in hopes of achieving `herd immunity' faster. 

As tired as we all are of this pandemic lifestyle, getting through the next few months may prove the most challenging of this pandemic to date. Vaccines, while slow to arrive, offer some hope going forward. 

But now is not the time to let down our guard.