CDC Updated COVID Variant Map (Feb 14th)

National Genomic Surveillance Dashboard

#15,807 

While some states, like Washington and Oregon, are doing significantly more testing that others, across the United States fewer than 1 in 200 positive COVID test results have undergone genomic sequencing in order to identify potential variants since the pandemic began. 

In some states - like Oklahoma, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, and South Dakota - that number drops to less than 1 in 2000. 

While work is underway to increase genomic sequencing capacity, for now considerable gaps remain in our national surveillance for variants.  There are also delays of 10 days or more from the time a test is selected for sequencing, before the results are published.  

While there are other variants, like CAL.20C, which are known to circulate within the United States, for now the CDC only tracks the B.1.1.7,  B.1.351, and P.1 variants on this map. 

With those caveats in place, we have the CDC's latest interactive map showing these 3 COVID variants detected across the country.  A week ago, the CDC showed 699 variants across 34 states, with 690 classified as B.1.1.7.

Today, that total has jumped by more than 70%, with 1193 variants reported across 41 states, with 1173 of those classified as B.1.1.7.

The B.1.1.7 variant continues to dominate this report and has been forecast to become the dominant variant in the United States by March (see MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021).

While early analyses suggested there was no evidence that - other than being more transmissible - this variant posed any greater danger to human health, in recent weeks we've seen several studies suggesting it may carry a 30% to 70% higher fatality rate. 

Yesterday, in UK: Updated NERVTAG Report On Increased Severity With COVID Variant B.1.1.7, we looked at the latest evidence of increased severity, albeit still based on limited data. 

We know far less about the B.1.351 and P.1 variants, although early studies suggest they may be more resistant to current vaccines, and those infected with the 2020 `wild type' COVID may be at greater risk of reinfection (see Denmark: SSI Risk Assessment On E484K SARS-CoV-2 Mutation).

While the recent dramatic drop in COVID cases and hospitalizations in the United States is a welcomed sign, there remains considerable uncertainty over what impact these three variants (and others) may have on the course of the pandemic over the next 6 to 12 months. 

As always, we need to be prepared for surprises.