Denmark SSI: COVID Variant B.1.1.7 Now 84% Of All New Cases

  

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In early January, in (SSI) Estimate Of COVID Variant B.1.1.7 Growth, Denmark's Statens Serum Institut warned that if he epidemic curve could not be substantially slowed, the B.1.1.7 COVID variant would become the dominant COVID lineage in Denmark by the end of February.

In the weeks that followed, we saw multiple reports out of the UK (see Updated NERVTAG Report) indicating that the B.1.1.7 variant likely carries somewhere between a 30%-70% increased risk of death. 

Exactly on schedule, two weeks ago Denmark announced COVID Variant B.1.1.7 Now Dominant In Denmark - Increases Risk of Hospitalization 64%.  Since then, the rate of B.1.1.7 has continued to increase, with Denmark announcing today that 84% of all new cases are due to this variant. 

In future, the Statens Serum Institut will only publish one total weekly contact number for B.1.1.7

The proportion of virus variant B.1.1.7 among persons infected with SARS CoV-2 is now so high that it is no longer relevant to calculate a separate contact number for this variant.

Last edited March 12, 2021

Since 25 January 2021, the expert group for mathematical modeling of covid-19 has every week published a separate contact number for the virus variant B.1.1.7, which is more contagious than other variants of SARS CoV-2 circulating in Denmark.

Up to 84% of the samples are virus variant B.1.1.7

At week 8, with approximately 70% sequencing of all positive PCR samples, virus variant B.1.1.7 accounted for 76.5% of them. In week 9, where so far there is a result from 59% of the sequenced samples, B.1.1.7's share has increased to 84% of the samples.

The proportion infected with virus variant B.1.1.7 is thus now so high that it is no longer relevant to separate this variant from the other circulating variants. The contact number will in future be calculated together for all positive PCR samples, regardless of variant.

The change has taken place from Tuesday, March 16, 2021.

Contact

For further information, contact SSI's press department on telephone 22601123 or email presse@ssi.dk .

Although genomic testing in the United States remains a fraction of what is being done in the UK, or in Denmark, we continue to see the number of B.1.1.7 variant cases rise steadily with every CDC Update. 

In January, the CDC predicted that B.1.1.7 would become dominant in the United States by the end of March, or sometime in April (see MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021), and although the actual count is currently just over 3,700 cases, the reality is likely a hundred times greater. 

In Europe, where B.1.1.7 is spreading widely, the recent downturn in COVID Cases has reversed once again (see ECDC chart below), with case counts rising for the three consecutive weeks. 

The continued roll out of COVID vaccines should help dampen this trend over time, but there are other, potentially less vaccine susceptible variants in the wings (P.1 and B.1.351). 

All reminders that while progress is being made, it is too soon to pop the champagne corks and declare victory over this pandemic.