#15,979
Over the next couple of days the Internet will probably crackle with a bunch of news stories and videos about an imminent geomagnetic storm, caused by a series of 3 M-class solar flares on the sun over the weekend. As you can see by the NOAA graphic above, a G1 storm is possible today, and a G2 storm is possible tomorrow.
But, as the NOAA scale below shows, these are pretty low level events, and are unlikely to have a major impact on the power grid or other electronic infrastructure.
A G2 storm, the higher of the two, may produce:
- Power systems: High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
- Spacecraft operations: Corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
- Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).
Those living in northern latitudes may also get some spectacular auroras over the next few days, but this hardly constitutes a major threat. Of course, if NOAA's forecast is off - and a stronger storm arrives - there could be some more serious impacts.
Our sun goes through a roughly 11-year cycle, over which time solar activity (sunspots, flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), etc.) build to a maximum, and its magnetic field reverses, and then tapers off to a low activity minimum.
The following NOAA graphic shows the suns progress over solar cycle 24 between 2010 and 2020.
The sun hit its last solar maximum peak in 2014, and has been growing quieter with each passing year. That is, until the past few months, when we've seen increased signs of solar activity.
The sun entered solar cycle 25 in December of 2019 (see Solar Cycle 25 Is Here. NASA, NOAA Scientists Explain What That Means), and is inexorably moving towards a new solar maximum (probably in 2025).
Solar maximums vary in intensity, and have been declining in intensity since their last modern peak in 1958 (see chart below), but the last cycle - while below average - still produced some serious CMEs and solar flares.
With solar minimum behind us, scientists expect the Sun’s activity to ramp up toward the next predicted maximum in July 2025. Doug Biesecker, panel co-chair and solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado, said Solar Cycle 25 is anticipated to be as strong as the last solar cycle, which was a below-average cycle, but not without risk.
While this week's geomagnetic storms aren't expected to be particularly disruptive, the sun can launch much more devastating solar weather in our direction (see my 2010 blog on the infamous Carrington Event of 1859). As we move deeper towards solar maximum, the opportunities for these sorts of events will increase.
Between our growing dependence on highly vulnerable satellites and electrical grids - and reports that our planet's magnetic field continues to weaken (see ESA Swarm probes weakening of Earth’s magnetic field) - there are concerns that we are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the effects of a major solar storm.
And during the last solar cycle, the earth had a `near miss' with a CME, that had it hit, could have done extensive damage to large segments of the world's electrical grid. This is a plausible, high impact threat that FEMA and NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) take quite seriously.
Seven years ago, in NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012, we looked at just how close the earth came to having the worst day in modern memory. A report, and a 4 minute video, from NASA follow:
July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.
Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.
"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado.
A ScienceCast video recounts the near-miss of a solar superstorm in July 2012. Play it
Such extreme solar events were once thought to occur only once every few hundred years, but scientists have discovered that these severe solar storms happen far more often (See Destructive Solar Storms Usually Hit Earth Every 25 Years or So, Say Scientists).
FEMA takes these solar storms seriously, and has held several table-top exercises on this type of disaster. According to a tweet from former FEMA Director Craig Fugate back in 2011, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.
A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the Homeland Security Digital library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario’.
Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm
(excerpt)
These assessments indicate that severe geomagnetic storms pose the risk for long-term outages to major portions of the North American grid. While a severe storm is a low-probability event, it has the potential for long-duration catastrophic impacts to the power grid and its affected users. The impacts could persist for multiple years with a potential for significant societal impacts and with economic costs that could be measurable in the several trillion dollars per year range.
In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.
In November of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events). Making their top 10 list was:
7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms
"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.
And in 2017, in USGS: Preparing The Nation For Severe Space Weather, we looked at an analysis that suggests Extreme space weather-induced electricity blackouts could cost U.S. more than $40 billion dailly, potentially trillions over a year.
Most people, unfortunately, think of an extreme solar storm as nothing more than a plot device for a cheesy made-for-cable sci-fi movie, but the reality is, this is a genuine national (and global) threat.
While I don't lie awake at night worrying about the next big solar disaster, it is one of the (many) reasons why I maintain, and promote having, an `all threats preparedness' plan. Regardless of the cause (hurricane, blizzard, earthquake, solar storm), prolonged power outages are often a big part of every disaster.
While few of us can prepare for a multi-year power outage - that envisions an absolute worst case scenario - which isn't the only (or even most likely) outcome. A more reasonable goal for most families would be the ability to deal with 10 days to two weeks without power.Being prepared for one just makes good sense.
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do. A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov. And for some of my past preparedness blogs, you may wish to revisit:
