Credit WHO - June 8th SitRep
#16,007
Although COVID has not exactly gone away, many parts of the world are reporting their lowest level of activity since last summer, raising hopes that - at least in high vaccine uptake regions - the worst of the pandemic may be behind us.
There are unanswered questions about how well some vaccines will deal with variants, and how long protection is afforded by both infection and vaccination, and so nobody really knows what the next 12 months have in store for us.
But even assuming the best case scenario - that the vaccines will be largely protective against current and future variants - globally only about 1 out of 17 are fully vaccinated. That leaves a lot of potentially susceptible hosts for the virus to still burn through.
It seems likely that some parts of the world will be battling this pandemic long after other regions have gone back to something resembling `normal'. But as long as the virus spreads unchecked anywhere, it remains a potential threat everywhere.
With that in mind, the ECDC has released their latest RRA, and while they have reduced their level of concern over their last assessment, they warn that it wouldn't take much to reverse this trend. Most EU/EAA nations are now listed in the moderate concern or low concern category.
In week 21, 2021, there was no country where the epidemiological situation was classified as very high concern (Figure 3). The distribution across the three remaining categories is as follows:
- Low concern: Austria, Czechia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovakia;
- Moderate concern: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, France, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden;
- High concern: Latvia and Lithuania.
Some excerpts from the report's executive summary follow, but you'll want to click the link to read the full 32-page document.
Rapid risk assessment: Assessing SARS-CoV-2 circulation, variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine rollout in the EU/EEA, 15th updateRisk assessment
10 Jun 2021
Although SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains widespread in large parts of the EU/EEA, most countries report declining trends in 14-day COVID-19 notification rates, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy, and mortality. Many countries have initiated partial lifting of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that aim to reduce the degree of citizens physical contact and mobility.
Since January 2021, EU/EEA countries have reported an increase in the number and proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases of variants of concern (VOC) associated with increasing transmissibility and/or severity, with Alpha (B.1.1.7) the current dominant variant across the EU/EEA. Estimates across the region show that a large proportion of the population across Europe still remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and that population immunity is far from being reached.
As of 3 June, the median cumulative vaccine uptake in the EU/EEA adult population (aged 18 years and older) had reached 46.2% for at least one vaccine dose and 22.3% for the full vaccination course. The highest level of vaccine uptake was observed among the elderly aged over 80, in which the uptake reached 80.5% for at least one dose and 66.3% for full vaccination coverage. For healthcare workers, the median level of at least one dose uptake was 87% and the median uptake for the full vaccination course was 65.2%. Increased vaccine supply has allowed countries to expand eligibility for vaccination to younger age groups.
Executive summary
Risk assessed in this update
The assessment of the risk posed by the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is stratified by four population groups (the vaccinated and unvaccinated general population and the vaccinated and unvaccinated vulnerable population). The assessment is based on the following elements: i) the vaccinated group has a lower probability of infection and ii) a lower impact of such infection than the unvaccinated, while iii) the vulnerable population suffers a higher impact of such infection when compared with the general population. Specific separate assessments were not performed for partially vaccinated and previously infected individuals in this risk assessment, although it is known that some protection is conferred to such persons.
Due to differences in the epidemiological situation, vaccination strategies and NPIs implemented, EU/EEA countries are experiencing different levels of risk posed by SARS-CoV-2 to the general population and to vulnerable groups and, thus, require different targeted interventions. ECDC classifies the epidemiological situation in EU/EEA countries into four categories based on the level of concern (low, moderate, high, very high). In most countries, the contribution of the intensity indicators to the overall score has been higher than that of the severity indicators in recent weeks. As such, the overall classification shown below provides a conservative estimate of transmission intensity.
In countries with an epidemiological situation classified as low concern, widespread transmission is falling with consequent low case notification rates. Due to the large proportion of the vulnerable population vaccinated with at least one dose, very low notification rates are recorded among the elderly. In these countries, the risk posed by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is assessed as low for the general population (both vaccinated and unvaccinated) and the vaccinated vulnerable population; for the unvaccinated vulnerable population there is a moderate-to-high risk.
Countries classified as moderate concern continue experiencing widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with a dominating highly transmissible variant. The highest notification rates are observed in the general population and, although a high proportion of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated with at least one dose, the probability of infection is higher than in the previous group of countries. A large part of the population is still susceptible to the infection. In these countries, the risk posed by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic ranges from low for the vaccinated general population to high-to-very high for the unvaccinated vulnerable population.
Countries classified as high concern experience widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission not only in the general population, but also among vulnerable individuals. The NPIs in place appear to be having a limited effect, either because adherence to the measures may not be optimal or the measures in place may not be sufficient to reduce or control exposure. Vaccination uptake in the general population and, particularly, in the vulnerable population appears to be still low. In these countries, the risk posed by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic ranges from low-to-moderate for the vaccinated general population to very high for the unvaccinated vulnerable population.
The current assessment represents a decrease in the risk levels compared with the 14th update of the ECDC COVID-19 risk assessment published in February 2021 [1]. Still, in any of the country scenarios, should mass gathering events such as the UEFA European Football Championship take place in the absence of sufficient mitigation measures, the risk of local and pan-European transmission risk of COVID-19, including the spread of variants of concern, would increase.
There is a continuous risk of the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs) that are potentially more transmissible or cause serious disease or escape natural or vaccinated immunity. The VOC B.1.617.2 (Delta) associated with increased transmissibility and a slight to moderate reduction in vaccine effectiveness after one vaccine dose is rising in some EU/EEA countries. Modelling suggests that a significant increase in COVID-19-related cases in the EU/EEA remains possible when NPIs are rapidly relaxed or vaccination rollout delayed.
Rapid risk assessment: Assessing SARS-CoV-2 circulation, variants of concern , non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine rollout in the EU/EEA, 15th update - EN - [PDF-1.2 MB]
