June Tropical Climatology - NOAA Tropical Atlantic Forecast 2021

June Areas of Tropical Storm Genesis - Credit NOAA

 

Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes

June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.

- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898

#16,001

We are only a week into 2021's Atlantic Hurricane season and the tropics remain thankfully quiet, although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of potential development (20% over the next 5 days) - located in the far western Caribbean - north of Panama.    

Although June isn't known for producing the kind of major, long-track hurricanes commonly seen in August-September-October, it isn't devoid of tropical threats either. When early storms do form, they are most likely to do so over the warm, relatively shallow waters of the the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. 

 
Further out to sea the Atlantic waters are generally too cold, and the winds and Saharan dust conditions aloft too unfavorable, to promote much in the way of long-track storm development.

 But those conditions gradually change as the summer progresses.

June hurricanes have a reputation for being mild, short-lived, and less dangerous. But there have been some notable exceptions.

• Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the only June storm in modern history known to reach CAT 4 strength, and it claimed 550 lives after it made landfall in eastern Texas and western Louisiana
• Category 1 Hurricane Agnes (1972), caused relatively little damage when it made landfall in Florida, but caused extensive inland flooding several days later in the Mid-Atlantic states, claiming 113 lives in New York and Pennsylvania.
• Slow moving tropical storm Allison - in June of 2001 – proved more than deadly producing 55 fatalities and causing in excess of $9 billion in damage to Southeast Texas - primarily due to its torrential rains.
• In 2010 Hurricane Alex – a strong CAT 2 hurricane – slammed into Mexican state of Tamaulipas after intensifying to hurricane strength on June 29th.

The lesson being that even tropical storms and weak hurricanes are capable of doing severe damage and taking lives. Below are a few notable June Hurricane tracks, including 1957’s notorious Audrey.You'll notice that Florida figures prominently in many of them.

While generally weaker than later season storms, June hurricanes can develop quickly, sometimes providing coastal residents with less than a day's warning. Which is one of the reasons why preparing in advance - instead of waiting for a storm to form - is advised.

This year's busy forecast, released in late May by NOAA (see NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season), although it is not expected to break last year's record (30 named storms).  This year's forecast calls for between 13 and 20 named storms. How many of those might impact the United States, and of what severity, is unknown.

As we've discussed so often in the past you don't have to live right on the coast to be affected by a land falling hurricane. High winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes can occur hundreds of miles inland.

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 - Help Your Neighbors 

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan

National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.