Credit WHO COVID Epidemiological Update #45
Earlier this week the ECDC issued a new Threat Assessment On Spread of COVID Variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) VOC which which bluntly warned against relaxation of nonpharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of the Delta variant, in order to have time to fully vaccinate more people.
#16,035
Although the latest WHO report continues to show COVID in decline - or flat - nearly everywhere in the world except the African Continent (see table below), there are numerous red flags suggesting the pandemic's tide may be about to turn once again.
Although the latest WHO report continues to show COVID in decline - or flat - nearly everywhere in the world except the African Continent (see table below), there are numerous red flags suggesting the pandemic's tide may be about to turn once again.
We've been watching the erosion of progress against COVID in the UK over the past few weeks as the Delta variant has risen from obscurity, to become dominant, and for the past two days the UK has reported 16,000+ new cases. Numbers they haven't seen since early February.
Today, the UK's PHE reported:
Delta cases continue to rise across the UK
PHE’s weekly COVID-19 variant cases data show that numbers of the Delta (VOC-21APR-02) variant in the UK have risen by 35,204 since last week to a total of 111,157. This represents a 46% increase. Of these, 42 are the Delta AY.1 sub lineage. The Delta variant now accounts for approximately 95% of cases that are sequenced across the UK.
PHE has also published the new edition of the variant technical briefing which continues to show that the vaccines continue to have a crucial effect on hospitalisation and death.
An additional 514 people were admitted to hospital in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 in the week up to 21 June. Of these, 304 were unvaccinated.
Yesterday, the WHO issued a warning about the surge in Africa, and while a combination of factors are at work, the spread of variants - in particular the Delta variant - is listed as a major concern.
Africa faces steepest COVID-19 surge yet
24 June 2021
Brazzaville, 24 June 2021 – Africa is facing a fast-surging third wave of COVID-19 pandemic, with cases spreading more rapidly and projected to soon overtake the peak of the second wave the continent witnessed at the start of 2021.
COVID-19 cases have risen for five consecutive weeks since the onset of the third wave on 3 May 2021. As of 20 June—day 48 into the new wave—Africa had recorded around 474 000 new cases—a 21% increase compared with the first 48 days of the second wave. At the current rate of infections, the ongoing surge is set to surpass the previous one by early July.
The pandemic is resurging in 12 African countries. A combination of factors including weak observance of public health measures, increased social interaction and movement as well as the spread of variants are powering the new surge. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda that are experiencing COVID-19 resurgence, the Delta variant has been detected in most samples sequenced in the past month. Across Africa, the variant—first identified in India—has been reported in 14 countries.
“The third wave is picking up speed, spreading faster, hitting harder. With rapidly rising case numbers and increasing reports of serious illness, the latest surge threatens to be Africa’s worst yet,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Africa. “Africa can still blunt the impact of these fast-rising infections, but the window of opportunity is closing. Everyone everywhere can do their bit by taking precautions to prevent transmission.”
WHO is deploying more experts to some of the worst-affected countries, including Uganda and Zambia as well as supporting South Africa-based regional laboratories to monitor variants of concern. WHO is also boosting innovative technological support to other laboratories in the region without sequencing capacities to better monitor the evolution of the virus. In the next six months, WHO is aiming for an eight- to ten-fold increase in the samples sequenced each month in Southern African countries.
The COVID-19 upsurge comes as the vaccine supply crunch persists. Eighteen African countries have used over 80% of their COVAX vaccine supplies, with eight having exhausted their stocks. Twenty-nine countries have administered over 50% of their supplies. Despite the progress, just over 1% of Africa’s population has been fully vaccinated. Globally, around 2.7 billion doses administered, of which just under 1.5% have been administered in the continent.
Even in highly vaccinated Israel, which a couple of weeks ago was reporting daily cases in the single digits, announced over 200 new cases yesterday, and warned it may reinstitute the requirement of wearing face masks indoors next week.
Once again, the spread of the Delta variant is getting much of the blame.
Although it first emerged in India, we arguably have the best information on the Delta variant from the UK, where it is now comprises > 95% of all COVID cases, and their latest risk assessment (June 25th) reads:
And while the United States is currently enjoying a summer lull in COVID cases (13,000 yesterday), the most recent `Nowcast' from the CDC (see CDC: Alpha Variant Continues To Decline In US As Delta & P.1 Rise) estimates the Delta variant now makes up roughly 20% of US cases, and is growing at a rate that all but ensures its dominance a month from now.
Ready or not, Delta has the potential to reverse many of the gains we've made over the past 6 months against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and the UK is unfortunately at the forefront. What happens there over the weeks ahead could serve as a harbinger of what is to come here in the US and other nations later this summer and fall.
While the effectiveness of some of the vaccines appears to be degraded against Delta, vaccination is still believed to substantially reduce your chances of being infected - or if infected, seriously sickened - by the virus.
Earlier this week the ECDC issued a new Threat Assessment On Spread of COVID Variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) VOC which which bluntly warned against relaxation of nonpharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of the Delta variant, in order to have time to fully vaccinate more people.
Although Delta is seemingly unstoppable, the same could have been said about the Alpha variant just 3 months ago. Now, it is in decline, giving way to Delta. And it is not unreasonable to assume that another, potentially more biologically `fit' variant, could come along to usurp Delta.
There is currently a lot of chatter about the `Delta Plus' variant (officially B.1.617.2.1 or AY.1) - essentially Delta with the K417N mutation - as being the next `big threat'. While it carries some concerning changes, it is far from certain how much of a factor it will become (see Science Media Centre expert comment on the ‘Delta plus’ variant (B.1.617.2 with the addition of K417N mutation)).
The UK has detected 42 cases of the Delta AY.1 sub lineage, and is well positioned to monitor how well it fares against its parental strain. If it is going to be competitive, we should know within a few weeks.
Until then, I prefer to take this pandemic one Delta at a time.
