Hurricane Elsa Crossing Windward Islands, Poses Threat to Southern US Next Week

 

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Earlier today the National Hurricane Center upgraded tropical storm Elsa to hurricane status as it approached the island of St. Vincent and St. Lucia. The forecast track takes it along the Haitian coast on Saturday, and Cuba's southern coastline on Sunday and Monday, putting it very near South Florida on Tuesday. 

The current forecast calls for Elsa to lose some of its punch as it crosses the Greater Antilles, but  keeps it as a strong tropical storm as it approaches the west coast of Florida.   

Intensity forecasts, however,  are less reliable than forecast tracks. Until Elsa was named a hurricane this morning, it was forecast to remain a tropical storm.  We'll have a much better idea of how much interaction with land will affect Elsa's strength in another 48-72 hours. 

The Key Messages from the NHC's 11 am update are:

While the current track has Elsa pretty much passing over my house on Tuesday, that could certainly change over the next 5 days.  As you can see by the models below, there is still a very wide spread in where this storm might go. 

Nevertheless, I'll be doing some last minute hurricane preps this weekend. 

 I've already got food, water, LED flashlights and lanterns, an NWS weather radio, and other supplies . . .  but I'll be topping off my car's gas tank, and putting all of my rechargeable AA and AAA batteries on charge, along with my USB battery packs. 

I don't expect much in the way of impacts beyond heavy rain, and maybe some gusty winds, but power outages occur around here fairly often.  It pays to be prepared. 

People who live on the coast may see heavier winds, or even a surge tide, and these types of storms have been known to spin up (usually small) tornadoes as they may landfall.  Anyone who lives in Florida, or southern Georgia, should definitely monitor this storm's progress over the long holiday weekend. 

If you are on Twitter, you should follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.