Avian Flu Diary: Something Tropical This Way Comes - NHC 11 am Advisory On T.S. Elsa

Thursday, July 01, 2021

Something Tropical This Way Comes - NHC 11 am Advisory On T.S. Elsa

#16,045

While it doesn't appear to pose a threat to the Continental United States until after the 4th of July weekend, the National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Elsa as it moves rapidly west towards the Lessor and Greater Antilles.

Since the storm is still 5 to 6 days away, and must wend its way across some mountainous regions, the forecast path and predicted intensity 120 hours out should be taken with a grain of salt. Some models turn the storm north earlier, sending it up the eastern seaboard, while others take it further west in the Gulf of Mexico

Regardless of where it goes, and what it does six days from now, Elsa is expected to bring heavy rains and potential flooding to the islands in its path. Current forecasts keep Elsa a tropical storm for the next 5 days, but as we've seen, tropical systems can tear themselves apart over land, and rapidly intensify over warm waters.

The NHC's 11 am Key Messages reads:

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.