#16,052
As the above screenshot from the UK govt COVID dashboard shows, COVID cases continue to rise rapidly now that the Delta variant has become dominant in the UK. Yesterday, more than 27,000 new cases were reported - a 10-fold increase over what what was being reported in May.
This upturn forced the delayed reopening of the UK last month (see UK: COVID R0 Rising As June 21st `Lockdown Exit Day' Nears), and while there are deep concerns that these numbers will continue to rise, the UK appears poised to drop all government imposed COVID restrictions on the 19th of July.
Whether this is a bold move whose time has finally come, or utter folly, depends upon who you ask. While there are many dire predictions in the wake of this announcement, I suppose we'll only find out over the next couple of months.
The UK isn't alone, of course. Many restrictions have been relaxed around globe, including in many US states, and Singapore reportedly plans to transition towards treating COVID like it does other, common respiratory diseases.
Despite the recent global reduction in COVID cases, the pandemic is far from over. The Delta variant is just beginning its world tour, Gamma and Lambda are just getting started, and new variants of concern may emerge over time.
It is likely that there is still considerable pandemic pain to come, particularly this fall and winter.
But the public's tolerance for new, or continued, lockdowns has waned markedly over the past few months, and the goal of `zero-COVID' is unlikely to be achieved regardless of how long restrictions remain in place. Politically, it is getting harder for governments to maintain lockdowns.
Vaccine uptake in many countries has declined, and there remains a sizable portion of the population who will never voluntarily roll up their sleeve for the jab.
While from a strictly public-health point of view relaxing COVID restrictions in the face of rising cases seems ill-advised, politically, I can understand their motivation. But this is a big gamble, and is a policy decision that could easily backfire as cases - and deaths - begin to rise.
Personally, I'll continue to mask-up when I'm in public and avoid crowds - even though I'm fully vaccinated - and will continue to urge others to do so. At least until we can see how this virus reacts this fall and winter unfettered by government imposed restrictions.
Hopefully these policy pull-backs aren't ill-timed, and won't compound an already bad situation.
But if they do, officials need to be willing to make additional mid-course corrections this fall or winter if needed, regardless of the `optics' of doing so. No matter how much we may desire it, we can't simply declare victory and expect the virus to surrender unconditionally.
The transcript from the UK Prime Minister's announcement follow:
PM statement at coronavirus press conference: 5 July 2021
Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a statement at the coronavirus press conference.
From:Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street and The Rt Hon Boris Johnson MPPublished 5 July 2021
Delivered on:5 July 2021 (Transcript of the speech, exactly as it was delivered)
I want to set out what our lives would be like from the 19th of this month - which is only a few days away – if and when we move to step 4 - a decision we will finally take on the 12th - and I want to stress from the outset that this pandemic is far from over and it will certainly not be over by 19th.
As we predicted in the roadmap we’re seeing cases rise fairly rapidly - and there could be 50,000 cases detected per day by the 19th and again as we predicted, we’re seeing rising hospital admissions and we must reconcile ourselves sadly to more deaths from Covid.
In these circumstances we must take a careful and a balanced decision. And there is only one reason why we can contemplate going ahead to step 4 - in circumstances where we’d normally be locking down further – and that’s because of the continuing effectiveness of the vaccine roll-out.
When we paused step 4 a few weeks ago, we had two reasons. First, we wanted to get more jabs into people’s arms – and we have, with over 45 million adults now having received a first dose and 33 million a second. That is a higher proportion of the adult population of any European country except Malta, and our expectation remains that by July 19 every adult will have had the chance to receive a first dose and two thirds will have received their second dose.
And second, we wanted a bit more time to see the evidence that our vaccines have helped to break the link between disease and death. And as the days have gone by it has grown ever clearer that these vaccines are indeed successful with the majority of those admitted to hospital unvaccinated, and Chris and Patrick will show the data highlighting the greatly reduced mortality that the vaccines have achieved.
So, as we come to the fourth step, we have to balance the risks. The risks of the disease which the vaccines have reduced but very far from eliminated. And the risks of continuing with legally enforced restrictions that inevitably take their toll on people’s lives and livelihoods - on people’s health and mental health. And we must be honest with ourselves that if we can’t reopen our society in the next few weeks, when we will be helped by the arrival of summer and by the school holidays, then we must ask ourselves when will we be able to return to normal?
And to those who say we should delay again; the alternative is to open up in the winter when the virus will have an advantage or not at all this year. And so again without pre-empting the decision on 12th July, let me set out today our five-point plan for living with Covid in the hope that it will give families and businesses time to prepare.
First, we will reinforce our vaccine wall, reducing the dose interval for under 40s from 12 weeks to 8, so that everyone over 18 should be double jabbed by mid-September, in addition to our Autumn programme of booster vaccines for the most vulnerable.
Second, we will change the basic tools that we have used to control human behaviour. We will move away from legal restrictions and allow people to make their own informed decisions about how to manage the virus. From Step 4, we will remove all legal limits on the numbers meeting indoors and outdoors. We will allow all businesses to re-open, including nightclubs. We will lift the limit on named visitors to care homes, and on numbers of people attending concerts, theatre, and sports events. We will end the 1 metre plus rule on social distancing, and the legal obligation to wear a face covering, although guidance will suggest where you might choose to do so, especially when cases are rising, and where you come into contact with people you don’t normally meet in enclosed places, such as obviously crowded public transport.
It will no longer be necessary for government to instruct people to work from home, so employers will be able to start planning a safe return to the workplace.
There will be no Covid certificate required as a condition of entry to any venue or event, although businesses and events can certainly make use of certification and the NHS app gives you a Covid pass as one way to show your Covid status.
Third, we will continue from Step 4 to manage the virus with a test, trace and isolate system that is proportionate to the pandemic. You will have to self-isolate if you test positive or are told to do so by NHS Test and Trace. But we are looking to move to a different regime for fully vaccinated contacts of those testing positive, and also for children. And tomorrow the Education Secretary will announce our plans to maintain key protections but remove bubbles and contact isolation for pupils.
Fourth, from Step 4 we will maintain our tough border controls – including the red list – and recognising the protection afforded by two doses of vaccine, we will work with the travel industry towards removing the need for fully vaccinated arrivals to isolate on return from an amber country and the Transport Secretary will provide a further update later this week.
Last, we will continue to monitor the data and retain contingency measures to help manage the virus during higher risk periods, such as the winter. But we will place an emphasis on strengthened guidance and do everything possible to avoid re-imposing restrictions with all the costs that they bring. As we set out this new approach, I am mindful that today is the 73rd anniversary of our National Health Service and there could not be a more fitting moment to pay tribute once again to every one of our NHS and social care workers.
And the best thing we can do to repay their courage and dedication right now is protect ourselves and others and to get those jabs whenever our turn comes.
Published 5 July 2021
