#16,145
The historic peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season usually falls around September 10th - but tropical activity typically begins to pick up after the 20th of August - and continues to be elevated until mid-October (see chart above).
As today's National Hurricane 5-day tropical outlook (below) shows, after a moderately active June and July, things are beginning to pick up, with three disturbed areas currently under investigation.
Luckily, the two out in the Atlantic are not expected to affect the Caribbean or the Mainland United States, although they could pose a concern for shipping interests. The one approaching the western Caribbean, however, deserves our attention.
The NHC is giving this area an 80% chance of development (to a depression and/or tropical storm) over the next 5 days (see 8am update below), and long-range models suggest it will enter the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend.
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Exactly where this storm goes, and how strong it might become, are unknown. Early models suggest Louisiana (see below), but anywhere from Texas to the Panhandle of Florida are probably on the table. Residents along the northern Gulf coast are encouraged to monitor this system over the weekend.
Although we've already seen 8 named storms, and 3 hurricanes (1 major), the next 8 or 9 weeks are likely to be very active, with NOAA predicting:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan
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