Avian Flu Diary: Tropical Storm Fred Forms - Aims for Florida Straits & Gulf of Mexico

#16,116

Compared to last year's record-breaking Atlantic tropical season - which produced 30 named storms - 2021 has been comparatively slow, although on average, we don't see our 6th named storm until the second week of September.

Overnight, the National Hurricane Center upgraded PTS #6 to T.S. Fred, and while it has a lot of land to interact with over the next 48 hours (primarily the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and parts of Cuba), it is expected to retain its tropical storm strength when it reaches the open waters of the Florida Straits and curves north-west into the Gulf of Mexico.

The exact timing of this turn will determine its peak strength, its impact on Florida's west coast, and its ultimate landfall (probably in the Panhandle of Florida to coastal Alabama). Today's models (see below) are subject to change, and so anyone from the Caribbean to Florida should continue to monitor this storm.

Current models suggest Fred will remain a tropical storm until landfall (see chart below), but intensity models are less reliable than forecast paths, and we've seen storms ramp up unexpectedly. The NHC 5am discussion reminds us there is uncertainty in this forecast, and it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts.

Most Floridians with a few of these storms under their belt know it is worth preparing for at least one-category-higher than forecast. We've seen rapid, dangerous, and unexpected strengthening of storms just prior to landfall (notoriously CAT 4 Charlie in 2004 & CAT 5 Michael in 2018), which caught a lot of people off guard.

So even though this looks like it will be a fairly minor storm, it wouldn't hurt to prepare as if hurricane conditions are possible. The Key Messages from the NHC as of 5:00 am today follows:

It is worth noting that there is another disturbance in the Atlantic a few days behind Fred, and we are still nearly month away from the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Things could get very busy over the next month or two.

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.