Tropics Heat Up: A Weakened Fred Inbound While A Mid-Atlantic Disturbance Is Given An 80% Chance of Development

 

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While currently demoted to a tropical depression, Fred is expected to regain some of its strength as it passes through the straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Tropical storm watches have been issued for the Florida Keys, and portions of the southwest Florida coastline. 

While not expected to reach hurricane intensity, Fred could become a moderately strong tropical storm before it makes landfall - probably in the Florida Panhandle - in roughly 72 hours. 

Perhaps a week behind Fred is another disturbance which the National Hurricane Center is giving an 80% chance of development over the next 48 hours.  If that happens, will be named Grace. 

The future path of `Grace' is far from certain, although it should approach the Leeward Islands in about 5 days. After that, forecast models diverge, with some continuing west, while other begin curving more to the northwest, potentially putting the United States' east coast under the gun. 

Although the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season doesn't come until mid-September (see chart below), mid-August is when we start to see the long track storms that form in the Eastern Atlantic, often giving them enough time to ramp up to major hurricane strength.

 

The first 10 weeks of the Atlantic Hurricane season have been lackluster, but over the next few months NOAA predicts that the Atlantic and Caribbean could serve up anywhere from 9 to 15 additional named storms, with 6 to 9 of those being hurricanes.   

While Fred is unlikely to produce more than a lot of rain and some bluster, the same cannot be said for what is likely to follow over the next 60-90 days. 

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page today, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during what is likely to be an active couple of months.

Below you'll find links to this year's Hurricane Preparedness blogs on AFD.

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 - Help Your Neighbors 

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan

National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk

If you live or work anywhere near hurricane country, you should follow @NHC_Atlantic, and visit the NHC for the latest updates, and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.