UK COVID Dashboard - Cases Last 3 Months
#16,188
Yesterday the UK unveiled their COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021, which they hope will allow their country to remain `open' and without many of the severe COVID restrictions invoked over the past 18 months, while still protecting the NHS and minimizing the impact of the virus.
While the `carrot' to this plan is a continued return to more a `normal' life, they do warn of a `stick'; a `Plan B' if `Plan A' doesn't work. First a look at the `carrot' in this plan:
The `catch' in all of this is that the vaccines (and boosters) must remain sufficiently effective against Delta (and any new variants), that the public doesn't flout the government's remaining guidance on protecting themselves and others from the virus, and that a `twindemic' of influenza and COVID this winter doesn't appear and overwhelm the NHS.This plan relies heavily on the continued uptake of COVID vaccines by the unvaccinated, and the rollout of booster shots to millions of people over the next few months, along with bolstering the NHS, continuing to `Test, Trace and Isolate' COVID cases, and encouraging the use of antivirals (monoclonal antibodies) and other therapeutics.
While the `carrot' to this plan is a continued return to more a `normal' life, they do warn of a `stick'; a `Plan B' if `Plan A' doesn't work. First a look at the `carrot' in this plan:
Over autumn and winter, the Government will aim to sustain the progress made and prepare the country for future challenges, while ensuring the National Health Service (NHS) does not come under unsustainable pressure.
The Government plans to achieve this by:
a. Building our defences through pharmaceutical interventions: vaccines, antivirals and disease modifying therapeutics.b. Identifying and isolating positive cases to limit transmission: Test, Trace and Isolate.c. Supporting the NHS and social care: managing pressures and recovering services.d. Advising people on how to protect themselves and others: clear guidance and communications.e. Pursuing an international approach: helping to vaccinate the world and managing risks at the border.
This is the Government’s Plan A – a comprehensive approach designed to steer the country through autumn and winter 2021-22. However, the last 18 months have shown the pandemic can change course rapidly and unexpectedly and it remains hard to predict with certainty what will happen. There are a number of variables including: levels of vaccination; the extent to which immunity wanes over time; how quickly, and how widely social contact returns to pre-pandemic levels as schools return and offices reopen; and whether a new variant emerges which fundamentally changes the Government’s assessment of the risks.
However, the UK government makes it clear that if things do not go as planned, that they have a `Plan B' in reserve:
So that the public and businesses know what to expect, this document outlines a Plan B in England which would only be enacted if the data suggests further measures are necessary to protect the NHS. The Government remains committed to doing whatever it takes to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
(SNIP)
The Government’s Plan B prioritises measures which can help control transmission of the virus while seeking to minimise economic and social impacts. This includes:
a. Communicating clearly and urgently to the public that the level of risk has increased, and with it the need to behave more cautiously.b. Introducing mandatory vaccine-only COVID-status certification in certain settings.c. Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings.
The Government would also consider asking people once again to work from home if they can, for a limited period. The Government recognises this causes more disruption and has greater immediate costs to the economy and some businesses than the other Plan B interventions, so a final decision would be made based on the data at the time.
Part and parcel to the UK's autumn plan is the immediate rollout of booster shots to the most vulnerable, and to anyone who has gone more than 6 months since their second shot. This announcement yesterday from the UK's Department of Health and Social Care.
Millions of the UK’s most vulnerable are to be offered a COVID-19 booster vaccine from next week.
From:Department of Health and Social Care
Published 14 September 2021
UK accepts advice from the independent JCVI on who to prioritise for a booster doseFurther details on deployment to be set out in due course
Millions of vulnerable people are to be offered a COVID-19 booster vaccine from next week as the government confirms it has accepted the final advice from the independent Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).The programme will be rolled out to the same priority groups as previously. This means care home residents, health and social care workers, people aged over 50, those aged 16 to 49 years with underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk of severe COVID-19, adult carers, and adult household contacts of immunosuppressed individuals will be prioritised.However, there will be flexibility in the programme, allowing all those eligible to receive their booster from 6 months after their second doses. This approach will allow more vulnerable people to be given their boosters quicker.
The move will ensure the protection vaccines provide for those most at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 will be maintained over the winter months. Data published by ONS yesterday shows people who have not been vaccinated account for around 99% of all deaths involving COVID-19 in England in the first half of this year. All 4 nations of the UK will follow the JCVI’s advice.
(SNIP)
The JCVI has also advised that the flu and COVID-19 vaccines can be co-administered. The NHS will now consider where it’s appropriate for co-administration to be used to support the roll-out of both programmes and where waiting to deliver one vaccine does not unduly delay administration of the other. It is important people take up the offer of both vaccines when they receive it, so people are encouraged to get both vaccinations as soon as possible rather than waiting for the possibility of getting them together.People will be offered either a full dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine or a half dose of the Moderna vaccine, following scientific evidence showing that both provide a strong booster response. This will be regardless of which vaccine the individual previously had.
Where neither can be offered, for example for those who have an allergy to either vaccine, the JCVI advise that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine can be used for those who received this vaccine for their first and second doses. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is safe, effective and has already saved thousands of lives in the UK and around the world.
The UK's reliance on `booster shots' is not without controversy, given growing international calls to postpone `booster shots' until 2022 (see WHO Director statement) to allow time for more vaccines to be delivered low income countries, and a recent Lancet opinion piece (see Considerations in boosting COVID-19 vaccine immune responses) calling booster shots `inappropriate' for the general public at this stage of the pandemic.
Our COVID pandemic continues to be an evolving threat, forcing scientists and politicians to often make decisions - and policies - based on incomplete information. By the time enough data becomes available, however, it may be too late to be actionable.Here in the United States, there remains a sharp divide between the FDA and the White House on when boosters should be offered, and who should be prioritized to receive them. The FDA's advisory committee will reportedly meet on Friday, Sept 17th, to further discuss the issue.
Successful or not, the UK's commitment to this plan should show us - in relatively short order - how practical it is to rely primarily on vaccines to control the pandemic at this point.
And that is something very much worth knowing.
