#16,301
Two months ago Denmark lifted all COVID restrictions, crediting a high vaccination rate (83%) for`bringing the epidemic under control'. By mid-September their 7-day average number of new cases was reassuringly just over 300.
Fast forward 6 weeks, and that weekly average has increased 6-fold (n=1,857), and their most recent one-day total (Nov 4th) was 2,598.
As we've seen all across Europe, COVID cases are rising dramatically (see chart below). And Denmark (orange box) - while on the ascendent - isn't anywhere near the front of the pack.
Earlier this week Denmark's Health Authority released new forecasts of COVID's growth over the next month, which includes up to a 5 to 10-fold increase in daily hospitalizations.
New calculations show that covid-19 infection is expected to continue to increase in the coming period
The new calculations show that the number of infections at the beginning of December could be 2,000-4,500 infected per day, and that there may be between 60-160 new inpatients each day. Calculations are, however, subject to significant uncertainties. Among other things, about the behavior of the population.
The expert group for mathematical modeling of covid-19 has come up with new, updated calculations for the development of the epidemic up to week 48. They expect further increases in the number of daily infected and newly admitted in the coming weeks.
The experts thus estimate that the infection numbers at the beginning of December will be between 2,000 and 4,500 a day. It is especially among the unvaccinated and the vaccinated under the age of 60 that increasing infection rates are expected. However, the calculations are subject to significant uncertainty. Among other things, they do not include whether the population will change their behavior if the infection increases further. Likewise, receding immunity is not included in the model yet.
For the new admissions, the group estimates 60-160 daily new admissions. Most new admissions are expected among the unvaccinated 20-69-year-olds and among the vaccinated over 60 years.
Markant spring
“Since the previous model calculations, which were published on 15 October, we can see that there has been a marked jump in the registered new admissions. This is especially true among those vaccinated over the age of 70, ”says doctor and leader of the expert group for mathematical modeling Camilla Holten Møller.
She continues:
"We can not say exactly what the reason for this leap is. It comes in the wake of the autumn holidays, where you are often closer with the family across generations. ”
The expert group expects to deliver new, updated calculations again in two weeks.
Read more
Read the new report with updated figures here
As concerning as these projections are, they don't take into account the added burden of influenza, which - while still at very low levels - is beginning to show increased signs of flu-like activity in Europe, as well as here in the United States.
NEWS
High risk of congestion in the hospitals in the autumn and winter
The National Board of Health has described the consequences of an increasing transmission of COVID-19 and other diseases, and how the board together with the regions can manage the capacity so that the hospitals are helped through the winter.
05 NOV 2021
Infection with COVID-19 will gradually increase during the autumn and winter, and more will be hospitalized. The situation is markedly different from last year, because a large part of the population has now been vaccinated, but at the same time we have normal activity in society, and this increases the risk of infection.
"We are concerned about the strain that may come from the health service during December and January. It is quite to be expected that the autumn and winter will result in an increase in the number of infectious diseases, but with both the risk of infection with COVID-19, influenza and other infectious diseases, we risk overloading the hospitals. In contrast to last year at the same time, there is now normal activity in society, and therefore we also expect that more people will become acutely ill for other reasons, ”says director Søren Brostrøm.
In the National Board of Health, there is particular concern about the increasing pressure on the emergency departments, medical wards, as well as surgical and intensive care units that may come over the winter.
"We already see now that the country's hospitals are very busy and that the staff is running fast. At the same time, we do not have the robustness that we have had in the past, because there has been pressure for a long period now, and there is simply less profit than usual, ”says director Søren Brostrøm.
It may be necessary to postpone scheduled treatments
Together with the regions, the National Board of Health continuously monitors the burden on the hospitals in order to be at the forefront of developments. It is absolutely crucial that there is sufficient capacity to treat the acutely ill patients. Therefore, it may be necessary to postpone scheduled treatments.
The National Board of Health has described four scenarios for the consequences for the hospitals of an increasing number of acute admissions in the coming months. The ambition is that as many patients as possible can be treated. However, it is the Danish Health and Medicines Authority's assessment that it may be necessary to postpone a significant part of the planned operations and outpatient visits for a period of time to create space for the acute admissions.
"Unfortunately, it will probably be the case that many patients will experience that their treatment or visit to the hospital is postponed. I understand very well that it creates great frustration in the patients, because someone may have already waited a while. The doctors at the hospitals will help ensure the priority, so that those who have the greatest need come first, ”says director Søren Brostrøm
Vaccines are a crucial tool
The absolutely crucial tool to reduce the strain on hospitals is vaccination. If more people make use of the offers of vaccination against COVID-19, revaccination and influenza vaccination, it may lead to a reduction in the burden on the hospitals. In addition, everyone can also make an effort to reduce infection by paying extra attention to maintaining good hygiene and limiting the infection by staying home for symptoms and being tested.
"We encourage everyone to accept vaccination. Both to avoid getting sick ourselves, but also so that we can take some of the pressure away from the hospitals. We can all need hospital treatment, so it is in our common interest that we have a high degree of vaccination, ”says director Søren Brostrøm.
Denmark is a relatively small country (5.8 million), with a modern universal healthcare system, an impressive COVID vaccine uptake, and it lags far behind less prepared European nations (like Estonia, Latvia, The Ukraine, etc.) in COVID cases.
Yet they are seriously concerned over their ability to cope this winter with a combination of COVID and Influenza.
And they aren't alone. Over the past few weeks we've looked at:
CDC Concerned Over Low Estimate Of Flu Vaccine Uptake this Fall
While the narrative online, and in increasingly in the popular press, is that COVID is in slow decline - and between the vaccine, and new antivirals - the worst of the pandemic is likely over, we still have a formidable winter to get through.
Assuming COVID doesn't pull any new tricks (read: variants) out of its hat, and vaccine (and booster) uptake continues, then perhaps the end of the pandemic truly is in sight.
But we aren't there yet, and we risk enduring a considerable setback if we don't treat this winter's threat seriously. Even a moderate COVID winter - if combined with a bad flu season - could throw hospitals back into crisis mode.
And if that happens, it won't matter if you believe yourself `immune' to COVID, or never get the flu.
If you need medical services of any kind - you may find them less available (see The Realities Of Crisis Standards Of Care), making it all the more important to reduce your risks this fall and winter. Your best bet in the face of an uncertain winter season is to get vaccinated (against COVID and Influenza), wear a face mask in public, and avoid risky behavior.
And hope we get lucky.
