#16,338
Even though we continue to struggle with the coronavirus pandemic, somewhere out there in nature - probably hosted by birds or pigs - are the building blocks for the next novel flu virus. One which could potentially dwarf COVID's considerable impact - as did the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918 - which killed between 50 and 100 million people.
As we saw with SARS-CoV-2, a novel influenza virus could easily be spread halfway around the world before we were aware of its existence. And despite talking a good game, we never seem to be as well prepared as we think we are.While we have the benefits of modern medicine, vaccine technology, and instant communications in our corner, the virus is aided and abetted by our 21st century transportation systems, which can spread a pathogen around the globe much faster than did the steamships of the early 20th century.
All reasons why we follow reports of novel flu - both in the wild, and in humans - around the world. We can't know when the next pandemic virus will coalesce, or how bad it will be. But given centuries of recurring influenza pandemics, we can be pretty confident it will happen again.
Given recent trends (see PNAS Research: Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Novel Epidemics), the next pandemic could occur sooner rather than later.
Yesterday the National Academies of Medicine announced the publication of 4 major reports (PDF versions available for free download), on preparing for both seasonal and pandemic influenza. With each report running between 170 and 250 pages, I haven't had time to do much more than download them and peruse their tables of content.
The press release on these new reports follow. I'll return with a postscript after the break.
Four New Reports from the National Academy of Medicine Focus on How to Prepare for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Through Lessons Learned from COVID-19
Nov 17, 2021 | News
The NAM released four reports on applying lessons learned from COVID-19 to prepare for seasonal influenza, as well as the next influenza pandemic. The reports provide recommendations on leveraging COVID-19 vaccine technology for influenza vaccine research and development, bolstering the influenza vaccine supply chain, improving global coordination, and effectively using non-vaccine public health measures, such as face masks, physical distancing, and school closures.
An influenza pandemic comparable to that of 1918, which caused an estimated 50 million deaths worldwide, could potentially have worse consequences than the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the reports say. Influenza remains the circulating pathogen most likely to cause a pandemic, and the risk for pandemic influenza may be higher during the COVID-19 era due to changes in global and regional conditions affecting humans, animals, and their contact patterns.
The reports emphasize the need for a preparedness framework. The global cost of responding to a pandemic in a one-year period is estimated to be $570 billion, while investments in pandemic preparedness would cost just $4.5 billion annually, notes the World Bank International Working Group on Financing Preparedness.
The reports also say the global community should provide continuous investment in vaccine technology; invest in supply chain forecasting; build manufacturing capacity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and be inclusive of their populations in research; and aim to develop 4 billion to 8 billion courses of influenza vaccine to be distributed globally in a timely and equitable manner.
“Seasonal influenza and the next influenza pandemic could emerge at any time. Preparedness has to be an ongoing commitment — it can’t be year to year, or crisis to crisis,” said Victor J. Dzau, president of the National Academy of Medicine. “COVID-19 has enabled the emergence of new capabilities, technologies, collaboration, and policies that could also be deployed before and during the next influenza pandemic. It’s critical to invest in science, strengthen health systems, and ensure trust in order to protect people from the health, social, and economic consequences of seasonal and pandemic influenza.”
The four reports are titled:
Countering the Pandemic Threat through Global Coordination on Vaccines: The Influenza Imperative
Globally Resilient Supply Chains for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Vaccines
Vaccine Research and Development to Advance Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza Preparedness and Response: Lessons from COVID-19
Public Health Lessons for Non-Vaccine Influenza Interventions: Looking Past COVID-19
and can be downloaded for free at the links above.
There is a very real danger that - if we manage to get through this COVID pandemic without another global public health crisis compounding it - that we will develop the same pandemic amnesia we've suffered from following every other pandemic in modern memory.
We'll assume another pandemic - if it does come - won't happen for decades. And though we'll talk about preparedness - we'll be distracted by more `pressing' problems, just as we were following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
COVID-19, as bad as it has been, was not the `worst-case pandemic scenario'. The 1918 H1N1 pandemic isn't necessarily the worst, either. A novel H5 or H7 avian flu, a MERS-like coronavirus pandemic - or perhaps Virus X (the one we don't know about, yet) - could prove far more daunting.
While we are all eager to be done with this pandemic - and return to something resembling `normal' life - we ignore the hard earned lessons of COVID at our considerable peril.
