Sunday, December 26, 2021

China Reports 21 Month High In COVID Cases (n=206)




#16,554

Even if we assume that the daily COVID numbers coming out of China aren't all-encompassing, for the past 21 months China has done a remarkable job in preventing the community spread of COVID. 

Rarely in that time have cases exceeded double digits, and when cases have appeared, they haven't been shy about quickly locking down and testing entire cities. 




China's Zero-COVID policy - which includes strict quarantining and testing of international arrivals - has kept cases below 200 since March 1st, 2020, but has come at a steep economic cost.  It has given them time to fully vaccinate more than 1 billion people, although the effectiveness of that vaccine against Omicron is now seriously in doubt

With Beijing hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics in just 5 weeks, today's surge in COVID cases comes at an inopportune time.  Below you'll find today's NHC (National Health Commission) report for Dec. 25th.  
(translated)

The latest situation of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic as of 24:00 on December 25
Release time: 2021-12-26 Source: Health Emergency Office

From 0-24 o'clock on December 25, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 206 new confirmed cases. Among them, 48 were imported from abroad (18 in Shanghai, 8 in Tianjin, 5 in Guangxi, 4 in Yunnan, 4 in Shaanxi, 3 in Fujian, 2 in Hunan, 2 in Guangdong, 1 in Beijing, 1 in Zhejiang), including 6 Cases turned from asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases (3 in Shaanxi, 2 in Guangxi, and 1 in Beijing); 158 local cases (157 in Shaanxi, including 155 in Xi’an and 2 in Xianyang; 1 case in Guangxi, in Fangchenggang) city). There were no new deaths. There are no new suspected cases.

On the same day, 76 new cases were cured and discharged , and 2,439 close contacts were released from medical observation. The severe cases were the same as the previous day.

There are currently 721 confirmed cases imported from abroad (including 3 severe cases) and 3 suspected cases. A total of 10,894 confirmed cases, a total of 10,173 cured and discharged cases, and no deaths.

As of 24:00 on December 25, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there are currently 2011 confirmed cases (including 9 severe cases), a total of 94430 cured and discharged cases, and a total of 4636 deaths. , A total of 101077 confirmed cases have been reported, and there are 3 suspected cases. A total of 1,406,467 close contacts have been traced, and 54,407 close contacts are still under medical observation.

31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 29 new cases of asymptomatic infections, including 28 imported cases and 1 domestic case (in Fangchenggang City, Guangxi); 6 cases were converted to confirmed cases on the same day (all overseas Imported); 11 cases were released from medical observation on the same day (8 cases imported from abroad); 504 cases of asymptomatic infection were still under medical observation (466 cases imported from overseas).

A total of 29,548 confirmed cases have been notified from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan . Among them, there were 12,580 cases in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (12,189 discharged and 213 deaths), 77 in the Macau Special Administrative Region (77 discharged), and 16,891 in Taiwan (13,742 discharged and 850 deaths).

(Note: When quoted by the media, please mark "The information comes from the official website of the National Health Commission.")

It's never been entirely clear how China would navigate the end of the COVID pandemic, since it seems likely that - heavily vaccinated or not - once they reopened their borders, COVID would run rampant though their population. 

That, at least, was the experience for the four nations that effectively quarantined themselves for the duration of the 1918 pandemic (see 2009's Can Island Nations Effectively Quarantine Against Pandemic Flu?).

A hundred years ago they didn't have the advantage of a vaccine, but long-term protection from our current day vaccines has been disappointing.  They may have been banking on SARS-CoV-2 attenuating in severity over time, but that was never guaranteed. 

China managed to shut down COVID 21 months ago, and has successfully suppressed outbreaks since then because they are willing to order the kind of mandatory testing, and strict lockdowns, and quarantines that few other countries are willing, or able, to duplicate.

These tactics have worked exceedingly well against the original Wuhan strain, the European D614G variant, Alpha, and Delta variants.  

The $64 question is whether it can work against Omicron.