UK: Another Record COVID Day (120K), Omicron-Related Deaths & Hospitalizations Increase

 

#16,446

With a population 1/5th that of the United States, the UK posted nearly 120,000 COVID cases in the past 24 hours - which is likely a sizeable undercount - as Omicron continues to drive daily COVID cases to new records around the world.  

This is the equivalent of 600K cases in the United States in a single day - a thus far unheard of number for this pandemic - but one that is likely to be breached here in the US before the end of the year. 

Testing is already faltering in many countries, as the volume of cases overwhelms laboratories, and so case counts are likely become even more unreliable in the days and weeks ahead.  The number of data issues being reported has increased markedly (see screenshot below from today's UK Dashboard).

The hope - backed up by a number of studies - is that Omicron infection will be less severe, and produce fewer hospitalizations and deaths, than Delta.  But how that plays out when you scale up the number of cases 10-fold, is less than certain. 

So we are watching what happens in the UK and in Denmark closely, in hopes of getting some advance warning of what to expect.  The idea that we in the US are 2 or 3 weeks behind Europe, however, may be optimistic. 

The latest Daily Omicron Overview from the UKHSA shows 90,000 confirmed cases, with Omicron-related hospitalizations and deaths jumping 50% over the past 24 hours. Since we don't have data on patient comorbidities, we don't know how many died from COVID as opposed to with COVID. 

Doubling times for Omicron infection (based on PCR SGTF) continue to double across the UK in less than 2.5 days.  While rate will likely slow over time, as people begin to take more precautions and the number of susceptible hosts dwindles, case counts are likely to remain stratospheric for several weeks. 

For the UK, the $64 dollar question is whether their NHS - which is already reporting increased absenteeism due to COVID infections among staff - can provide adequate care to all who need it in the face of increased patient loads. 

As we've seen here in the United States, some hospitals will be forced to invoke Crisis Standards of Care.

Other concerns include staffing for other essential services, including fire, police, truckers, etc. who absence could greatly impact daily life and safety. 

While the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) may be lower with Omicron than with Delta, the societal and economic impacts from the number of infections projected over the next 3 or 4 months could prove quite formidable.