#16,423
Yesterday the UK set a new record of 78,610 cases, breaking the old record by 10,000 cases. Today, the UK has broken yesterday's tally by another 10,000 cases.
Given the large number of asymptomatic cases, and instances where people with mild symptoms don't test or don't report home test findings, the actual number of new infections is expected to be over 200,000.
Testing for the Omicron variant lags behind regular testing, and is expected to capture only a fraction of the Omicron cases in the UK. The latest update from the UKHSA shows over 11,700 confirmed cases to date.
If Omicron cases are truly doubling every 2-3 days as reported, soon - probably within days - the number of COVID infections in the UK will outstrip the ability of their public health system to track them. Numbers may appear to plateau, even if they are still rising.
Obviously, these numbers can't grow at this tremendous pace for very long, since susceptible hosts for Omicron will decrease over time, slowing transmission. Additionally, the rate of growth will likely decline as more people begin to see its impact and take additional precautions.
But even if we assume the Omicron variant to be less severe than Delta (hoped for, but not yet proven), this wave could still grow large enough to overwhelm healthcare delivery systems, and degrade essential services due to absenteeism.
This pattern, which we are also seeing in Denmark, Norway, and South Africa, is likely to spread globally in the weeks and months to come, hence my call yesterday to prepare in Now, More Than Ever Before, Get A `Flu Buddy'.
Hopefully we get lucky with the severity of Omicron, but the return of seasonal influenza could be a complicating factor (see PLoS NTD: Clinical & Virological Impact of Single and Dual Infections with influenza A (H1N1) and SARS-CoV-2).
Ready or not, we appear to have a challenging few months ahead of us.
