#16.433
While the jury is still out on the relative severity of the Omicron variant, the best gauge we have is what's happening in places like Denmark and the UK, where it is winter (unlike South Africa) and where they have a well established national health program, along with excellent testing and reporting capabilities.
Despite this testing prowess, positive identification of Omicron cases lags behind regular COVID testing by several days to a week, and not everyone who falls ill gets tested. Soon the daily number of cases may outstrip these country's ability to test.
With those caveats, the UK is producing a daily, detailed, Omicron report that should give us early warning as to what to expect as this variant spreads around the world.
Deaths are lagging indicators, and often occur only weeks after someone is infected and (usually) hospitalized. Fourteen deaths at this point - without knowing patient details - doesn't tell us a whole lot, but it suggests Omicron may not be as benign as some believe.
Only time will tell.
Officially the UK reports confirmed cases, but preliminary cases - identified by the S Gene Target Failure on some types of PCR tests - are another way to track the trend. And cases identified by SGTF are doubling at a phenomenal rate; roughly every 2 days.
Today's 7-page PDF report is available at the following link:
While I know it is difficult to sit and wait for better data, we really don't have a good enough handle on the Omicron variant to say - one way or another - exactly how pathogenic it will be in humans. And while that makes a huge difference in its impact, it isn't the only factor.
A virus that is even half as deadly as Delta, if it infects a significantly large number of people, would still represent a big challenge for healthcare delivery services.
What we do know is the number of COVID cases in the UK has jumped by nearly 61% in the past week, and that number seems destined to rise much higher in the weeks to come.
What happens in the UK over the next two weeks should tell us a lot about what to expect here in the United States in January. In the meantime, we still have Delta - and rising rates of influenza - to contend with.
Stay tuned. No matter what happens, the next few months are going to be difficult.
