Denmark COVID Dashboard: Deaths per Day From COVID
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We continue to watch Denmark closely - as it has one of the best surveillance, testing, and reporting systems on the planet - and it is currently dealing with a rapidly rising incidence of the BA.2 Omicron sublineage which is overtaking the globally dominant Omicron BA.1 lineage.
The WHO describes the constellation of Omicron variants as:
The Omicron variant includes Pango lineages B.1.1.529, BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3. BA.1 accounts for >99% of sequences submitted to GISAID as of 18 January 2022. All these variants are being monitored by WHO under the umbrella of ‘Omicron’.
BA.2 is beginning to make inroads in a few countries, including the UK, Sweden, and Norway. But it is unclear what - if any - difference this emerging sublineage makes on the spread of the virus, or an individual's course of illness.
The hope is Denmark can provide us with solid data before BA.2 begins its world tour in earnest.
While it appears to have a transmission advantage over BA.1, its ability to reinfect those who have recently recovered from BA.1, and whether it produces more severe illness, remain largely unanswered.
For now, the news remains mostly promising.
Even though Denmark's infections are at record highs, hospitalizations and deaths have not followed suit, and ICU admissions are down. Vaccinated individuals - while still susceptible to breakthrough infection - appear to fare far better in terms of severe illness, hospitalization, and death.
But the transmissibility of BA.2 - at least in Denmark - is calculated to be an astounding 1.5 times greater than BA.1. A translated excerpt from the risk assessment follows:
BA.1 has been the most frequent subvariant in Denmark until the beginning of January, but in recent weeks BA.2 has developed rapidly and it is estimated that the variant was dominant in Denmark during week 2. BA.2 is thus spreading rapidly, and represents an ever-increasing proportion of Omikron cases.
Preliminary calculations indicate that BA.2 is effectively well over one and a half more contagious than BA.1. The same pattern of increase in BA.2 - is not seen as markedly in other countries. In the UK, Sweden and Norway there is also an increase in BA.2 cases, but there are not nearly as many BA.2 cases as in Denmark.
The reason for this difference is not yet known, but it may be important that there are differences in vaccination coverage or in contact patterns on the basis of restrictions, population density, etc.
If these preliminary transmissibility numbers hold, and if they are carried forward to other countries around the world, then reports of Omicron's imminent peak may be premature.
The translated summary of yesterday's 9-page risk assessment follows:
Despite historically high infection rates, admissions do not follow
Infection rates are expected to rise further in the coming weeks. But when the infection will peak depends on the evolution of the omikron variant BA.2. These are some of the conclusions of a new risk assessment from statens serum institut.
Last Edited january 26, 2022
The COVID-19 epidemic is still developing. In recent days, record high rates have been seen, with 46,000 cases recorded on January 21. At the same time, the positive rate rose to 20.4%. And the total 7-day incidence has grown to 3,792 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. This is significantly more than at the previous risk assessment on 9 January. Here the figure was 2,137 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Despite this, the number of intensive admissions has decreased and a third of those hospitalized are not hospitalized with a COVID-19 diagnosis.
This is shown by the latest risk assessment from the Danish State Serum Institute (SSI), which has come up with a fresh status on the epidemic.
The proportion of hospitalizations among infected people decreases
Although there are very high rates of infection, admissions have not increased to the same extent.
SSI looked at covid-19-related new admissions data from November 1 to January 10. At the beginning of November, the hospitalisation rate was 3%, while by the end of the period it had fallen to 1.5%
"At the same time as infection rates are increasing, we are seeing a relatively lower growth in the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations and a decreasing number of hospitalizations in intensive care units. In addition, an increasing proportion of reasons other than COVID-19" are inserted, says Technical Director Tyra Grove Krause from SSI.
According to the risk assessment, it is the high proportion of vaccinated people in Denmark and the omikron variant that causes the epidemic to change the pattern so that the infection rates and hospitalization figures no longer go hand in hand.
"It is the omicron variant that is driving the epidemic right now. We estimate that more than 99% of all covid-19 cases in week 3 are due to omicron, and data show that it spreads faster, but gives a lower risk of serious disease outbreaks compared to delta. At the same time, we can see a marked difference in the risk of being admitted between vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccinated are better protected against being hospitalized - even if they are infected by the omicron variant ", says Tyra Grove Krause.
Uncertain when the epidemic will peak
In December, SSI expected the covid-19 epidemic to peak in late January / early February with 25,000-55,000 new cases each day.
Since then, a new factor has come into play, namely the omicron subvariant BA.2.
Worldwide, BA.1 is still the most common sub-variant, accounting for 98% of cases. In Denmark, however, BA.2 has developed very quickly, and it became dominant in this country in week 2.
Preliminary calculations indicate that BA.2 is one and a half times more contagious than BA.1. Of course, we follow the development closely, and if BA.2 is more contagious, it may mean that the wave of infections will be higher and will extend further into February compared to the previous projections, ”says Tyra Grove Krause.
She continues:
"Overall, we must say that the epidemic is still growing and that there is still a risk that infection rates will increase further in the coming weeks. Therefore, there is also a risk that the number of admissions will increase. ”
"On the other hand, we expect the admissions to be milder than before due to vaccination and the omicron variant".
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See the full risk assessment here
