Credit Our World In Data - Confirmed Cases Relative to Population
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Unlike the United States - which saw a steep, but relatively brief, surge in COVID Omicron BA.1 cases over December and January - Denmark has endured a much longer, and steeper wave (see chart above) due primarily to the Omicron BA.2 subvariant (see Denmark SSI: Omicron Subvariant BA.2 Now Accounts For Nearly Half Of All Danish Cases).
The BA.2 sublineage of the Omicron variant has been gettin a lot of attention in the mainstream media, and on the internet, because:
- BA.2 appears to have a transmission advantage over the the BA.1 (including BA.1.1) subvariant (see Preprint: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC subvariants BA.1 and BA.2: Evidence from Danish Households);
- At least one study using animal models (see Preprint: Virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2 variant) suggested BA.2 might produce more severe illness than BA.1, and recommended it be given its own (Greek letter) variant designation.
But as we discussed earlier this week, in WHO Statement On Omicron BA.2 Sublineage, we haven't seen any real-world evidence of increased severity in humans. There does appear to be some risk of reinfection by BA.2 following BA.1 infection, but the SSI describes those cases as `rare' and `mild'.
After nearly 3 months Denmark's Omicron wave appears to be running out of steam, as described in the following report from their Statens Serum Institut.
Covid-19 infection appears to be declining
The number of new covid-19 cases fell by almost a quarter from week 6 to week 7. At the same time, the positive percentage is stable at 40.1%, although fewer were tested in week 7. This is shown by the latest trend report from the Statens Serum Institut.Last edited on February 24, 2022
There are signs that the Covid-19 epidemic has begun to subside in Denmark during the winter holidays.
This is the overall conclusion in the latest trend report from the Statens Serum Institut (SSI).
According to the report, the number of new cases of infection decreased by as much as 24% from week 6 to week 7. This is a change compared to the development from week 5 to week 6, where the number of new cases of infection increased by 7%.
The decrease can also be immediately read on the incidence for the whole country, which was a total of 4,081 cases per year. 100,000 inhabitants in week 7 against 5,395 cases per. 100,000 inhabitants in week 6.
Read the new trend report
The incidence is still highest in North Jutland
The decline in the number of cases of infection has been felt in all five regions of the country. At least in the North Jutland Region, where the incidence decreased by approximately 21% from week 6 to week 7, while in the other four regions it decreased by 24% -26%.
The incidence is also still highest in the North Jutland Region, where in week 7 it fell to 5,717 covid-19 cases per. 100,000 inhabitants. This is followed by the Central Jutland Region with an incidence of 4,879 covid-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in week 7.
The Capital Region of Denmark still has the lowest incidence and has had it since week 4. Here the incidence fell by a further quarter in week 7 to 2,889 covid-19 cases per week. 100,000 inhabitants.
The positive percentage is stable
However, the positive percentage is stable at 40.1% in week 7 compared to 39.8% in week 6. That is, more than 4 out of 10 of all PCR tests taken in week 7 were positive.
“Test activity has declined during the winter holidays, but despite the decline in test activity, we do not see a positive percentage increase. At the same time, we are seeing a decrease in the number of cases of infection, and this points in the direction that the infection may be declining, ”says ward doctor Rebecca Legarth from SSI.
She continues:
“We can also see a stagnation in the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater at national level, however with an increase in the Capital Region. Overall, therefore, it indicates that the infection is stable or stagnant, but there is uncertainty about the week's results due to the winter holidays. ”
The epidemic is now most prevalent in adults
If you look at who gets infected, the pattern changes compared to the beginning of the year. The infection now falls in virtually all age groups except among the 70-79-year-olds and the age group from 80 years and up.
But the infection is still highest among the 25-29-year-olds in week 7, where it was 4,715 covid-19 cases per. 100,000 inhabitants full of the 30-39-year-olds with an incidence of 4,704 per. 100,000 inhabitants in week 7.
Nationwide, the incidence was 4,081 covid-19 cases per. 100,000 inhabitants against 5,395 covid-19 cases the week before.
Half of the deaths did not occur due to covid-19
Overall, the number of covid-19-related deaths has been stable in the first three weeks of the year at 106-111 deaths per week. Since then, it started to rise. First to 137 deaths in week 4 and 145 deaths in week 5, while in week 6 there were 209 covid-related deaths. By week 7, the number had reached 210 deaths.
As in recent weeks, the report includes inventories of validated causes of death among the covid-19-registered deaths.
"The survey shows that the proportion of people who are estimated to die from a cause other than covid-19 has increased in the past month, and the increase has occurred in parallel with the number of covid-19-related deaths having increased. From week 3, the proportion of deaths that have occurred for a reason other than covid-19 has increased to 50% ", says Rebecca Legarth.
The same is seen around the covid-19-related admissions. In week 5, the proportion of admissions due to covid-19 decreased to 50% against 52% in week 4.
The good news here is - at least in a highly vaccinated population - BA.2 doesn't appear to have produced any greater illness severity, or worse outcomes, than BA.1 BA.2 did, however, produce a longer and steeper wave of relatively mild illness in Denmark.
How all of this plays out in the coming months is the big question. COVID continues to evolve, and individual immunity - whether from vaccines or infection - wanes over time.
All of which adds more than a little uncertainty to predictions about what comes next.
