#16,635
While the United States is enjoying its lowest COVID infection rate since last summer, the same cannot be said for much of the rest of the world (see chart above), as the virus rages in places like South Korea and Hong Kong, and continues to gain speed in China and much of Europe.
Right now, the Western Pacific region (South Korea, Hong Kong, China) is getting most of our attention, but cases are once again on the ascendant in places like Austria, The Netherlands, Switzerland, and Germany.
It appears that the more transmisible Omicron BA.2 sublineage, which is just starting to establish itself in the United States (see CDC Nowcast: Omicron BA.2 Still Gaining), is behind much of this surge in Europe and Asia.
We should get a new estimate of BA.2's prevalence from the CDC tomorrow.
While there are reports of yet another sublineage (BA.2.2) on the internet, very little is known about it, and it has not been designated a VOC (Variant of Concern). It would not be surprising, however, to see another VOC emerge in the months ahead.
But for now, BA.2 appears to have plenty of gas in the tank, and seems poised to sweep across China, and very likely, the rest of the world.
So far, we've not seen any compelling evidence that BA.2 is any more severe - at least in highly vaccinated populations - than BA.1, but more data is needed. The steep rise in deaths in Hong Kong (see chart below) suggests that - at least in elderly, under-vaccinated populations - BA.2 can be quite serious.
This high CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is no doubt a concern for Mainland officials, since the Sinovac vaccines are expected to offer little protection against Omicron.
Surprisingly, both Australia and New Zealand - countries the have coped relatively well with COVID - are seeing higher rates of infection than either the United States or the UK (see chart below)
The upshot of all of this is, while COVID rates here in the United States have dropped markedly, we can't assume that the pandemic is over for us. BA.2 is slowly rising here, and the benefits of booster shots taken last fall are undoubtedly starting to wane.
Factors that suggest our current respite may be short-lived.
