#16,710
Given that up until a few weeks ago, China had only reported 2 COVID-related deaths over the previous 12 months, it is fair to say that Mainland officials often resort to using `creative accounting' practices when compiling reports.
Essentially, if a COVID-related death can be attributed to any other cause, it usually is. All of which makes the rising official death toll in Shanghai - while still undoubtedly greatly underreported - something to watch.`Bad news' in China is often regarded as a national security issue, and many local officials are understandably reluctant to report anything up the chain of command that would invite enhanced scrutiny from Beijing.
The latest 24-hour COVID report from Shanghai's Municipal Health Commission (below) cites roughly 21,000 new cases (`confirmed' and `asymptomatic'), but doesn't mention deaths. Shanghai's definition of `asymptomatic' is unclear, but it likely includes those with `mild' symptoms.Over the past 7 days, 87 COVID Deaths have been reported in Shanghai, with 39 of those reported in the past 24 hours.
We do, however, pick up the latest death toll from the National Health Commission's daily report.April 23 (0-24:00) Confirmed cases and residences of asymptomatic infected persons in various districts of the city
Released in Shanghai 2022-04-23 22:32The Municipal Health and Health Commission notified this morning (24th): From 0 to 24:00 on April 23, 2022, there were 1,401 new confirmed cases of local new coronary pneumonia and 19,657 asymptomatic infections, of which 541 confirmed cases were previously asymptomatic infections. 816 confirmed cases and 19,421 asymptomatic infections were found in isolation and control, and the rest were found in the investigation of relevant risk groups.
The latest situation of the novel coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on April 23
Release time: 2022-04-24 Source: Office of Health Emergencies
From 0 to 24:00 on April 23, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 1,580 new confirmed cases. Among them, 14 were imported cases (5 cases in Guangdong, 4 cases in Guangxi, 1 case in Inner Mongolia, 1 case in Fujian, 1 case in Henan, 1 case in Sichuan, and 1 case in Yunnan), including 1 case from asymptomatic infection to confirmed case (in Guangdong); 1566 local cases (1401 in Shanghai, 60 in Jilin, 26 in Heilongjiang, 22 in Beijing, 12 in Zhejiang, 10 in Jiangxi, 6 in Jiangsu, 6 in Henan, 5 in Inner Mongolia, 4 in Shandong and 4 in Hunan 4 cases in Guangdong, 2 cases in Anhui, 1 case in Hebei, 1 case in Liaoning, 1 case in Hubei, 1 case in Yunnan), including 577 cases from asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases (541 cases in Shanghai, 18 cases in Jilin, 9 cases in Zhejiang 2 cases in Jiangsu, 2 in Jiangxi, 2 in Guangdong, 1 in Anhui, 1 in Shandong, and 1 in Yunnan). 39 new deaths, all local cases, in Shanghai; no new suspected cases.In a (translated) press release from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (see below), Wang Xingpeng , director of the Shenkang Hospital Development Center, acknowledged the number of critically ill patients being admitted to local hospitals has increased over the past 2 days and cites 3 steps to address the situation.
Go all out to treat critically ill patients, improve the treatment rate and reduce the fatality rate
(Excerpts)
One is to strengthen the treatment capacity of city-level designated hospitals.
The second is to allocate municipal medical resources to support municipal designated hospitals.
The third is to support and guide the treatment work of designated hospitals in various districts.
In the next step, we will continue to improve the treatment mechanism, strengthen the medical force, strengthen the medical administration, and go all out to treat critically ill patients, so as to increase the treatment rate and reduce the fatality rate.
Other signs that things are not going well in Shanghai include reports that street-level barriers are being erected in parts of the city (see AP report Shanghai erects metal barriers in fight against COVID-19), and news reports and twitter images of hazmat suited workers disinfecting streets, vehicles, and even apartments.
Regardless of the true number of cases and deaths in China, one thing is clear; while other countries are moving towards `living with COVID', Mainland officials continue to treat COVID as practically an existential threat.
Despite its enormous costs to both their economy and social order, China continues to pursue an expensive, and by many estimations - impractical - strict `Zero-COVID' policy. Even if they succeed in Shanghai, there are other viral `brush fires' burning across the mainland (Jilin, Beijing, etc.) - along with future importations - to deal with.
By whatever reasoning, they appear to have calculated the risks of allowing COVID to spread to be greater than the extraordinary costs - and long odds - of trying to stop it.
While they may well be wrong, they must think they know something we don't. And that, should raise some red flags.
