#16,795
Based on today's Nowcast from the CDC the ascendant Omicron Variant BA.2.12.1 has slowed its steady climb - gaining only 1.2% over last week (but remains dominant at 59.1%) - while B.1.1.529, which was all but extinct a month ago (.5%), has staged a major comeback (now 6.1%).
BA.1.1.529 was the first Omicron variant to take off - first in South Africa - and then around the world, in late 2021. It was supplanted in rapid succession by BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, and most recently BA.2.12.1.
B.1.1.529's remarkable rebound is, therefore, somewhat surprising. Highest concentrations of this older variant appear to be in the Midwest (12.4%), and mid-South (10.8%). Lowest is in the Mid-Atlantic and New England region, where BA.2.12.1 is most dominant.
With four flavors of Omicron co-circulating in the United States (and BA.4 and BA.5 expected to be added to the mix this summer), what happens next is hard to predict. Among the unknowns.
Has BA.2.12.1 peaked or is it only temporarily stalled?
Will B.1.1.529 continue to regain ground?
When will BA.4/BA.5 begin to appear in the weekly Nowcast?
Stay tuned, as things could get interesting in a hurry. In the meantime below you'll find the latest CDC Nowcast estimates.
Given the limits of surveillance, testing, and genomic sequencing around the country, all of these numbers should be viewed as rough estimates, and we may see further revisions to the data in the weeks ahead.
Predicting what comes next is a mugs game, but COVID continues to surprise, and it doesn't appear ready to settle down into a mundane endemic virus anytime soon.
