#16,803
One of the realities of life in this 21st century is how utterly dependent we’ve all become on having a steady supply of electricity (and internet) in our homes and places of work. Few Americans know what it would be like, or are prepared to cope, with a prolonged grid down scenario.
While it might seem to some a remote possibility, it happens with surprising frequency in this country – and around the globe - usually connected with an extreme, but localized weather event such as a hurricane, blizzard, tornado, or ice storm.
We’re not talking hours here. We’re talking days or even weeks with no electricity.
While it might seem to some a remote possibility, it happens with surprising frequency in this country – and around the globe - usually connected with an extreme, but localized weather event such as a hurricane, blizzard, tornado, or ice storm.
For coastal residents from Texas to New England, it isn’t unheard of to be without power for a week or longer after a major hurricane. In 2017 I was without power for 4 days due to hurricane Irma. And I was lucky, my power was restored relatively quickly.
In 2017, Puerto Rico was without power for months following Hurricane Maria, which undoubtedly contributed to the excess mortality there following the storm (see NEJM Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria).
While hurricanes, blizzards, and Derechos pose a perennial threat, there are many other threats to the integrity of the electrical grid that have governments deeply concerned, including severe space weather, cyber attacks, and an aging and increasingly overwhelmed electrical delivery system.
In December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.
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What is a catastrophic power outage?• Events beyond modern experience that exhaust or exceed mutual aid capabilities
• Likely to be no-notice or limited-notice events that could be complicated by a cyber-physical attack
• Long duration, lasting several weeks to months due to physical infrastructure damage
• Affects a broad geographic area, covering multiple states or regions and affecting tens of millions of people
• Causes severe cascading impacts that force critical sectors—drinking water and wastewater systems, communications, transportation, healthcare, and financial services—to operate in a degraded state
(Excerpt From Dec 2018 NIAC Report)
A year earlier, in DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report - August 2017, we looked at a 45-page report addressing urgent cyber threats to our critical infrastructure that called for `bold, decisive actions'.
And with the 11-year solar cycle expected to peak in the next 2 or 3 years, severe space weather is increasingly viewed as a genuine threat.
In 2013 Lloyds issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing was unknowable. Some of my other blogs on this threat include:
The UK’s Space Weather Preparedness Strategy
Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA
NASA Braces For Solar DisruptionsIn 2015, in USGS: Preparing The Nation For Severe Space Weather, we saw the OSTP (Office of Science & Technology Policy) warn of the risks of severe space weather. They released enhanced preparedness plans to deal with a direct hit by a major CME, which was published in a White House blog called Enhancing National Preparedness to Space-Weather Events.
In the past we've looked at their work, including in GridEx 2013 Preparedness Drill and 2015's The Lloyd’s Business Blackout Scenario, and while all of the above scenarios worry them, increasing demand, climate change, and a power grid transitioning to a more environmentally responsible generation system may provide the most imminent threat.
Their summer outlook, published in late May, warns of possible rolling blackouts this summer across large swaths of the nation (see map at top of the blog), on top of the above mentioned threats. First the link to the full 46-page report, followed by their press release.
I'll return with a postscript after the break.
AnnouncementMay 18, 2022 ATLANTA –NERC’s 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment warns that several parts of North America are at elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls this summer due to predicted above normal temperatures and drought conditions over the western half of the United States and Canada. These above-average seasonal temperatures contribute to high peak demands as well as potential increases in forced outages for generation and some bulk power system equipment.While NERC’s risk scenario analysis shows adequate resources and energy for much of North America, the Western Interconnection, Texas, Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and Saskatchewan are at “elevated risk” of energy emergencies during extreme conditions. Midcontinent ISO (MISO) is in the “high risk” category, facing capacity shortfalls in its north and central areas during both normal and extreme conditions due to generator retirements and increased demand. Additionally, at the start of the summer, MISO will be without a key transmission line connecting its northern and southern areas as restoration continues on a four-mile section of a 500 kV transmission line that was damaged by a tornado in December 2021.Extended drought conditions present varied threats to capacity and energy across the country. In the Western Interconnection, the widespread drought and below-normal snowpack has the potential to lead to lower than average output from hydro generators, threatening the availability of electricity for transfers throughout the Interconnection. In Texas, wide-area heat events coupled with drought can lead to higher than expected peak electricity demand and tighter reserve conditions. Meanwhile, as drought conditions continue over the Missouri River Basin, output from thermal generators that use the Missouri River for cooling in SPP may be affected in summer months. Low water levels in the river can impact generators that use once-through cooling and lead to reduced output capacity.“Industry prepares its equipment and operators for challenging summer conditions. Persistent, extreme drought and its accompanying weather patterns, however, are out-of-the-ordinary and tend to create extra stresses on electricity supply and demand,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments. “Grid operators in affected areas will need all available tools to keep the system in balance this summer. Over the longer term, system planners and resource adequacy stakeholders need to keep potentially abnormal weather conditions like these in mind so that we continue to have a reliable and resilient bulk power system.”The assessment’s other key findings include:
- Supply chain issues and commissioning challenges on new resource and transmission projects are a concern in areas where completion is needed for reliability during summer peak periods.
- The electricity and other critical infrastructure sectors face cyber security threats from Russia, in addition to ongoing cyber risks.
- Some coal-fired generator owners are facing challenges obtaining fuels as supply chains are stressed.
- Unexpected tripping of solar photovoltaic resources during grid disturbances continues to be a reliability concern.
- Active late-summer wildfire season in Western United States and Canada is anticipated, posing some risk to bulk power system reliability.
NERC develops its independent assessments to identify potential bulk power system reliability risks. NERC’s annual Summer Reliability Assessment provides an evaluation of resource and transmission system adequacy necessary to meet projected summer peak demands. In addition to assessing resource adequacy, the assessment monitors and identifies potential reliability issues of interest and regional topics of concern. The reliability assessment process is a coordinated reliability evaluation between the Reliability Assessment Subcommittee, the Reliability and Security Technical Committee, the Regional Entities and NERC staff. The 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment reflects NERC’s independent assessment and is intended to inform industry leaders, planners, operators and regulatory bodies so they are better prepared to take necessary actions to ensure bulk power system reliability.
While there isn't much you and I can do about the grid's vulnerabilities, we can take steps to make our homes more livable if the power goes off. Those with deep pockets may consider generators, or large solar arrays on their roofs, but there are simpler and less expensive solutions for those willing to `make do' with fewer amenities.
Some of my past preparedness blogs include:
Hurricane Preparedness: Some Simple Off-The-Shelf Solar Solutions For Power Outages
#NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness
My New (And Improved) Solar Battery Project (for CPAP)
Grid Down Solar Solutions On A Budget
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A full tank of gas in your car.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do. A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.
Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . . .
It's only a matter of where, when, and how bad.
