Friday, December 09, 2022

CDC Nowcast: BQ.1/BQ.1.1 Responsible for 2/3rds Of COVID Cases Nationwide




#17,161

As mentioned many times in the past, the CDC's Nowcast of COVID variants across the country is a  great tool for picking up trends, but is based on limited surveillance, and the percentages tend to bounce around from week to week. 

The Omicron tag-team of BQ.1/BQ.1.1 continue to rise (67.9% combined) - although somewhat slower than previous variants - supplanting BA.5 as the dominant strain. At the same time,  previous week's numbers continue to be revised (both upwards and down), for many of the variants in circulation.  

XBB, which last week was said to make up 5.5% of all cases, has been reduced to 4.7% this week.  Yet its overall (adjusted) trajectory remains on the ascendant.  While well behind, BN.1 is the only other subvariant that appears to be gaining ground this week. 

The remaining 9 subvariants with detectable levels are either holding steady or losing ground to the top 4 (BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and BN.1).   All of this is subject to revision, of course. 


 

While BQ.1/BQ.1.1 continue to gain ground, they appear to be doing so at a much slower rate than did previous dominant strains, taking more than a month to double their `share'.  

Whether this will affect how long they will reign remains to be seen. 

With 12 subvariants now circulating at detectable levels in the United States, and more on the way, our pandemic coronavirus appears to be in no hurry to recede quietly into the night.