Friday, December 23, 2022

CDC Nowcast: XBB Already Dominant In The Northeast As BQ.1 & BQ.1.1 Begin To Stall


#17,192


While the trend is most pronounced in regions 1 & 2 of the country, the XBB Omicron variant is rapidly gaining strength across the nation - more than doubling its share over last week's estimate - and already accounts for  > 50% of cases in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York and New Jersey.

The CDC's Weekly COVID Nowcast provides estimates based on limited surveillance, and previous week's numbers are often revised, meaning that they are most useful for spotting trends. 

Although BQ.1 & BQ.1.1 only recently supplanted BA.5 (early November), they are already starting to loose ground to XBB. Currently XBB is the only subvariant (among the 12 currently tracked by the CDC) showing any substantial growth. 


While XBB appears on track to become the next dominant Omicron variant in the United States, how long it will reign is impossible to say, as there are other variants in the wings and COVID's rapid replacement cycle continues.