Sunday, August 27, 2023

NHC Forecasting A Hurricane For Florida In 72 Hours












#17,638

Two days ago, in Watching the Gulf Of Mexico, I mentioned an area of potential tropical development south of the Yucatan Peninsula. Overnight, it has formed into a tropical depression, and is expected to become a hurricane as it moves north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico (see NHC forecast track map above).

Gulf water temperatures remain at record highs, which is expected to fuel intensification, but wind shear across the Gulf is expected to be a limiting factor. Intensity forecasting is always a challenge, but right now the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is looking at a strong CAT 1 storm approaching the coast in 72 hours. 

This could obviously change in the days ahead, and those in the path of this system would do well to prepare for a CAT 2 or better storm, just in case.  This morning's forecast discussion does note this potential for rapid intensification. 

There's a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.

Most of the computer models are in good alignment when it comes to the path of this storm, putting landfall in the panhandle in about 72 hours.  The impacts of this storm, however, can reach hundreds of miles inland, and a hundred miles or more to either side of the track. 


The key messages from the NHC this morning are:

Although I'm just barely in the cone, I'll be monitoring this storm closely. Over the past 6 years I've had to evacuate twice (see here and here) - have been without power for more than a week - so I do my yearly hurricane prep in May.

This storm will not only affect Florida, it will impact Georgia and the Carolinas, with inland flooding, and spin-up tornadoes always possible. 

While I'll be doing usual hurricane preparedness blogs - and I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page - your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov, and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For more Hurricane resources from NOAA, you'll want to follow these links.

HURRICANE SAFETY

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Posted by at