Friday, August 25, 2023

Watching the Gulf Of Mexico


#17,635

Despite the dampening effect of El Niño on Atlantic tropical development, unusually hot sea surface temperatures and improving atmospheric conditions have begun to take their toll, and in this last week of August we find a potential threat brewing south of the Yucatan peninsula. 

This from the National Hurricane Center graphical outlook 


While computer models have difficulty accurately predicting the future path and intensity before a closed circulation forms, they do show a tropical `something' (depression, storm, hurricane) forming early next week in the western Caribbean and moving generally north into the GOM, and then north east, possible crossing Florida and entering the Atlantic.   

Which is why those living in Florida (including myself) will need to keep a close watch on its development over the weekend.  Should a tropical system emerge (est. 70%), it may not leave residents along the coast much time to prepare. 

While I'll be doing usual hurricane and preparedness blogs, your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov, and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For more Hurricane resources from NOAA, you'll want to follow these links.

HURRICANE SAFETY

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES