Saturday, August 02, 2025

Ireland & Scotland Now Reporting H5N1 Outbreaks


#18,822

Two days ago, in The UK's Summer HPAI H5 Surge In Poultry, we looked at an unexpected rise in H5N1 poultry outbreaks (n=4) over less than a week, which began just 3 days after Defra lowered the nation's risk level.

Yesterday morning we saw Defra Announce the 5th H5 Poultry Outbreak In A Week, and this morning we have two more outbreaks - one in the Republic of Ireland, and the other in the north of Scotland (see map above).

First, this report from https://www.gov.ie/ 
Minister Heydon announces a finding of avian influenza in a small backyard flock in Co. Donegal

From: Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
Published on: 31 July 2025
Last updated on: 31 July 2025

Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Martin Heydon, has today announced that avian influenza has been detected in a small backyard flock in Co. Donegal. The Minister confirmed that there are no trade implications for the Irish poultry industry in relation to this detection, due to the very small size of the flock.

Minister Heydon said:

“A bird from a very small backyard flock in Co. Donegal has tested positive for the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza, following a post-mortem examination carried out in my department’s Regional Veterinary Laboratory in Sligo. Following this result, the other birds in the flock have now been euthanised. I would like to extend my sympathies to the flock owner.”

This latest report prompted Northern Ireland's DAERA (Department of Agriculture, Environment, & Rural Affairs) to issue the following statement:
 
Date published: 1 August 2025

The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) is urging all poultry and bird keepers across Northern Ireland to remain vigilant for signs of avian influenza, as evidence confirms that the virus continues to circulate.

This renewed call for vigilance follows recent detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 reported by both the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) in the Ireland and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in Great Britain.

In recent days, HPAI H5N1 has been confirmed in a small backyard flock in County Donegal and in flocks across six locations in England. In all cases, birds were humanely culled to prevent further spread.

These findings highlight the persistent and serious threat posed by avian influenza to both commercial and backyard flocks. DAERA is reminding all bird keepers — regardless of the size or type of flock — to remain alert and take all necessary steps to minimise the risk of infection, particularly from wild birds.

       (Continue . . . )


Meanwhile, in Northern Scotland, Defra reports:

1 August 2025 

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was confirmed by the CVO Scotland at a premises near Banff, Aberdeenshire (AIV2025/55). 

A 3km protection zone and 10km surveillance zone has been declared around the premises. All poultry on the premises will be humanely culled.

Based on past experience, the expectation was that the UK would enjoy lull in bird flu activity over the summer. Last year no cases were reported between March and October - and until a week ago - no cases had been reported in nearly 5 weeks

While it is not clear exactly what is behind this unseasonable uptick in HPAI outbreaks in and around the UK over the past week - any change in the virus's behavior is very much worth noting.  

More importantly, we'll be watching to see if similar trends emerge in Europe, where avian flu activity has reportedly declined in recent months (see High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain and Europe ).


 Stay tuned. 

Preprint: Surveillance on California Dairy Farms Reveals Multiple Sources of H5N1 Transmission

 

Credit EID Journal

#18,821

Six weeks ago, in Dairy Cows Infected with Influenza A(H5N1) Reveals Low Infectious Dose and Transmission Barriers, we looked at a preprint which challenged the popular assumption that cow-to-cow transmission of HPAI was primarily due to contaminated milking machines. 

While they confirmed that Bovine (B3.13) H5N1 efficiently infected the bovine mammary gland at very low infectious doses - and produced clinical disease and reduced milk production - they were unable to duplicate the spread of the virus via contaminated milking equipment under controlled experimental conditions.

The authors wrote:
While contaminated milking equipment is strongly hypothesized to be the primary route of exposure on-farm5,6, our experimental findings did not confirm this, falling short of an explanation for the apparently frequent on-farm transmission.

While small sample sizes in experimental settings may limit the ability to observe transmission, this also raises important questions about whether real-world farm conditions present higher risks than can be reproduced in high-containment facilities.

Other agent, host, and environmental cofactors that might contribute to transmission cannot be ruled out and must be explored as this study demonstrates critical gaps in our understanding of transmission.

We've previously looked at a number of other plausible vectors, including insects (see H5N1 in California: The Return of the Fly), rodents (see Emer. Microbe & Inf.: HPAI Virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in Wild Rats in Egypt during 2023), and even contaminated dust (see Preprint: Genetic & Meteorological Data Supporting Windborne Transmission of HPAI H5N1). 

Today we have another preprint (not yet peer reviewed) that - despite relying on fairly limited testing - provides evidence of other potential avenues of on-farm transmission.  

The researchers collected and tested air, wastewater, and milk samples from multiple California farms and milking parlors to identify transmission sources, and found evidence of extensive environmental (air, water & milking equipment) contamination.  

Key findings include:

  • detection of infectious H5N1 virus in milking parlor air and farm wastewater 
  • evidence of airborne transmission from exhaled cow breath
  • H5N1 infection without mastitis symptoms, suggesting subclinical milk producing cows may be going undetected
  • the detection of an N189D HA mutation (which may affect the receptor binding domain) in at least one air sample 
  • and heterogeneous patterns of viral infection across individual udder quarters that call into question the assumed `primary role'  played by milking equipment

Running 31 pages, this preprint has a lot to unpack, and most of my readers will want to follow the link to read it in its entirety.  I've only posted the abstract a a few short excerpts below. 

I'll have a brief postscript after the break. 

Surveillance on California dairy farms reveals multiple sources of H5N1 transmission

A.J. Campbell, Meredith Shephard, Abigail P Paulos, Matthew Pauly, Michelle Vu, Chloe Stenkamp-Strahm, Kaitlyn Bushfield, Betsy Hunter-Binns, Orlando Sablon, Emily E Bendall, William J Fitzimmons, Kayla Brizuela, Gracie Quirk, Nirmal Kumar, Brian McCluskey, Nishit Shetty, Linsey C Marr, Jenna Guthmiller, Kevin Abernathy, Adam S Lauring, Blaine T Melody, Marlene Wolfe, Jason Lombard, Seema S Lakdawala

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.31.666798

Preview PDF

Abstract

Transmission routes of highly pathogenic H5N1 between cows or to humans remain unclear due to limited data from affected dairy farms. We performed extensive air, farm wastewater, and milk sampling on 14 H5N1 positive dairy farms across two different California regions.

Virus was detected in the air in milking parlors and from exhaled breath of cows. Infectious H5N1 virus was detected in the air and water streams; sequence analysis revealed viral variants on a farm in these locations. Longitudinal analysis of milk from the individual quarters of cows revealed a high prevalence of subclinical H5N1 positive cows and a heterogeneous distribution of infected quarters that maintained a consistent pattern over time. Our data highlight potential modes of H5N1 transmission on dairy farms.

        (SNIP)

Discussion

Elucidating the routes of transmission of H5N1 between cows is critical to defining successful mitigation strategies. In this study we successfully detected H5N1 in the air and in reclaimed farm wastewater on separate dairy farms on multiple days. This included infectious air samples from three different milking parlors and viral RNA from the exhaled breath of rows of cows on two distinct farms. 

Additionally, we detected viral RNA in farm wastewater at multiple sites on various farms and infectious virus at two different sites on the same farm. Together, these results highlight the expansive environmental contamination of H5N1 on affected dairy farms and identify additional sources of viral spread between cows and to humans. 

(SNIP)

Taken together, our data confirm the presence of infectious H5N1 virus in the air and reclaimed farm wastewater sites. In addition, we observed high viral loads in the milk of cows, including those without clinical signs, and heterogenous patterns of H5N1 positivity by quarter, suggesting that multiple modes of H5N1 transmission likely exist on farms. 

These transmission routes could include contaminated milking equipment from an infected cow, aerosols generated within the milking parlor, and/or contact of teats with contaminated water used to clean housing pens.

Multiple mitigation strategies should therefore be implemented to reduce the risk of H5N1 spread within a herd and to humans. Respiratory and ocular personal protective equipment (PPE) for farm workers to prevent deposition of virus-laden aerosols on these sites, especially in the milking parlor.

Disinfection of milking equipment between each milking of each cow, such as with consistent use of backflush system, could also reduce spread of H5N1 between cows. Treatment of milk from sick cows to inactivate H5N1 prior to disposal as well as treatment of waste streams prior to their use on fields or on farms should also be considered. 

Finally, identification of infected cows, regardless of clinical signs, for isolation will help reduce the transmission of H5N1 on farms.

(Continue . . . )

The fact that we are nearly 17 months into this bovine outbreak, and we've yet to get a good handle on how cow-to-cow and cow-to-human transmission takes place, should give everyone pause. 

Many dairy farmers - fearing loss of income or the stigma of infection - have been reluctant to allow their livestock to be tested (see EID Journal: Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus among Dairy Cattle, Texas, USA), and many farm workers - worried about their jobs or immigration - are unwilling to be tested. 

While we get lucky - and it turns out there is some species barrier that prevents HPAI H5 from becoming a pandemic -  `Don't test, don't tell' is a very risky strategy.  

Ignoring the public health risks - or implemented half-hearted or ineffective measures - only provides the virus with more opportunities to evolve and adapt, and increases the chances that H5N1 - or one of its descendants - will get lucky.  

Friday, August 01, 2025

Vet Sciences: A Review of Avian Influenza Virus Exposure Patterns and Risks Among Occupational Populations

 

#18,820

It is the oft-stated position of the CDC, and the FAO/WHO/WOAH that the global public health risk from influenza A(H5) viruses remains low, but the risk of infection for occupationally exposed persons may rise to moderate (or even high).

Last November, in MMWR: Serologic Evidence of Recent Infection with HPAI A(H5) Virus Among Dairy Workers - we learned that in a sampling of 115 farm workers (from Michigan & Colorado) Eight (7%) showed antibodies for H5N1, yet half of them could recall no symptoms, while four others reported `very mild' symptoms.

Last February, in MMWR: Seroprevalence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5) Infections among Bovine Veterinary Practitioners – United States, September 2024, we learned that 3 veterinarians who volunteered for antibody testing at a veterinary conference last September tested positive for H5. 

None of these veterinarians suspected they had ever contracted the virus, and two deny working with infected cattle (including one who worked in two states that have never reported bovine H5). A finding the authors suggest may indicate `. . . . there could be U.S. states with A(H5)-positive people and animals that have not yet been identified.'

Of the 77 confirmed and probable H5N1 cases in the United States (see chart below), 92% are linked to infected cattle or poultry exposure. There are 4 cases where the exposure source remains unknown. 

 As we've seen in recently in Cambodia, and frequently in the past in places like China, Indonesia, and Egypt, the raising of backyard poultry also entails heightened risks. 

Last year the WHO published  Interim Guidance to Reduce the Risk of Infection in People Exposed to Avian Influenza Viruses, which lists a number of `risk factors', including:

  • keep live poultry in their backyards or homes, or who purchase live birds at markets;
  • slaughter, de-feather and/or butcher poultry or other animals at home;
  • handle and prepare raw poultry for further cooking and consumption;

All of which brings us to a lengthy review on HPAI exposure patterns and risks among `occupational populations', which is well worth reading in its entirety.

I'll return with a postscript after the break.  

A Review of Avian Influenza Virus Exposure Patterns and Risks Among Occupational Populations

Huimin Li ,Ruiqi Ren , Wenqing Bai , Zhaohe Li , Jiayi Zhang , Yao Liu, Rui Sun ,Fei Wang , Dan Li ,Chao Li ,Guoqing Shi , and Lei Zhou

Vet. Sci. 2025, 12(8), 704; https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci12080704
Published: 28 July 2025

 

Simple Summary

Avian influenza virus (AIV) remains a significant threat to public health. Occupational groups with frequent exposure to poultry, livestock, or contaminated environments face a higher risk of AIV infection. This review outlines the key exposure pathways and risk factors for AIV in these populations, including viral characteristics, animal host factors, environmental conditions, and host susceptibility. By synthesizing current evidence, we aim to support the development of targeted prevention strategies to mitigate infection risks and protect occupational workers’ health.

Abstract

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant risks to occupational populations engaged in poultry farming, livestock handling, and live poultry market operations due to frequent exposure to infected animals and contaminated environments.
This review synthesizes evidence on AIV exposure patterns and risk factors through a comprehensive analysis of viral characteristics, host dynamics, environmental influences, and human behaviors. The main routes of transmission include direct animal contact, respiratory contact during slaughter/milking, and environmental contamination (aerosols, raw milk, shared equipment).
Risks increase as the virus adapts between species, survives longer in cold/wet conditions, and spreads through wild bird migration (long-distance transmission) and live bird trade (local transmission). 
Recommended control measures include integrated animal–human–environment surveillance, stringent biosecurity measures, vaccination, and education. These findings underscore the urgent need for global ‘One Health’ collaboration to assess risk and implement preventive measures against potentially pandemic strains of influenza A viruses, especially in light of undetected mild/asymptomatic cases and incomplete knowledge of viral evolution.

        (SNIP)

Conclusions and Prospects
Since the first reported human case of H5N1 infection in Hong Kong in 1997, the risk of cross-species transmission of avian influenza viruses has continued to escalate. The recent confirmation of a novel transmission pathway from ruminants to occupational populations has further highlighted the significant health threats faced by exposed workers.
This study comprehensively analyzes the primary exposure routes of AIV among occupational groups, demonstrating that infections originate from direct contact with infected poultry, dairy cattle, or contaminated environments, followed by viral entry through mucosal (ocular, nasal, or oral) contact or respiratory routes.
Guided by the “One Health” concept, we innovatively developed a four-dimensional occupational exposure risk assessment framework incorporating viral molecular characteristics, host animals, human susceptibility, and environmental factors, confirming that avian influenza epidemics result from multifactorial interactions.

Regarding prevention strategies, this study proposes tiered recommendations. The primary objective is establishing a coordinated surveillance network spanning animal-human–environment interfaces for early outbreak detection, followed by enhanced implementation of biosecurity measures, particularly targeting high-risk exposure scenarios. These findings provide critical scientific foundations for improving avian influenza control systems.

(SNIP)

Future research should focus on fundamental studies elucidating molecular mechanisms and evolutionary patterns of cross-species transmission, applied research developing occupational exposure risk assessment tools and protective technologies for high-risk occupations, and implementation science conducting cost-benefit analyses and intervention optimization across resource settings.

       (Continue . . . )

 

Even though we are now more than 15 months, and over 1,075 infected dairy herds, since the discovery of HPAI H5N1 in dairy cows in the United States, there is still much we don't know about how the virus is spreading.

Testing of cattle has been limited, is generally voluntary, and is focused almost exclusively on lactating dairy cows.

A recent study suggests the virus is far more widespread in livestock than has been reported (see Nature: A Mathematical Model of H5N1 Influenza Transmission in US Dairy Cattle) - yet many dairy farmers - fearing loss of income or the stigma of infection, simply prefer a `Don't test, don't tell' strategy. 

The USDA's Dairy Herd Status Program continues to show just 113 herds (out of an est. 36,000) from 18 states enrolled in the voluntary herd monitoring program.

We've also seen farm workers reluctant to report illnesses or be tested for the virus, over fears of losing their jobs or running afoul of immigration agents (see EID Journal: Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus among Dairy Cattle, Texas, USA).

A few months ago we saw the average time to submit sequences to GISAID was 7 months, with some countries taking more than twice that. Many countries are slow to share outbreak information, and some some appear to be burying `bad news' completely (see From Here To Impunity).

While the reporting of new cases, and outbreaks, has plummeted over the past 6 months - and the situation looks better `on paper' - the HPAI problem has not gone away

Like so many other reviews we've seen, today's calls for enhanced surveillance and increased biosecurity, and the rapid sharing of clinical samples, viral isolates, and genetic sequences of novel strains; all under a coordinated `One Health' approach.  

But despite these repeated pleas, there are relatively few signs that they are being taken seriously by governments, agencies, or stakeholders.     

The world continues to treat the spread of HPAI as more of an economic or political concern, than a public health threat. And while that optimistic assessment may be true today, it could abruptly change with little warning. 

UK: Defra Announces 5th H5 Poultry Outbreak In A Week

 


#18,819

Yesterday, in The UK's Summer HPAI H5 Surge In Poultry, we looked at an unexpected surge in H5N1 poultry outbreaks (n=4) over less than a week, which began just 3 days after Defra lowered the nation's risk level

The risk of infection of poultry in Great Britain with suboptimal biosecurity is therefore lowered to LOW (rare but does occur) with high uncertainty. The risk to poultry with stringent biosecurity is maintained at LOW (rare but does occur) with low uncertainty.

I won't rehash the background information from yesterday's blog, but after I posted that blog, Defra announced a 5th outbreak - once again in Sommerset County - albeit roughly 40 miles east  of the outbreak near Dulverton, Tiverton and Minehead  reported on the 28th.

Details are typically scant:

31 July 2025

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was confirmed in other captive birds at a premises near Yeovil, Yeovil, Somerset (AIV 2025/54). A 3km captive bird (monitoring) controlled zone has been declared surrounding the premises.

While not unheard of, summer outbreaks of HPAI H5 in UK captive birds are fairly rare. Last year, zero outbreaks were reported between late February and early November. 

Given that much of what happens with the evolution and spread of HPAI H5 occurs  outside of our view, it is important to take note of any changes in the virus's behavior. 

While this spate of summer HPAI outbreaks could prove to be little more than a transient event, it is worth keeping our eye on. 

Stay tuned. 

Thursday, July 31, 2025

CDC Reminder On Preventing the Spread of Flu Between Pigs and People



#18,818


While avian flu continues to rank at - or near the top of - most people's pandemic threat lists, swine influenza viruses (which tend to spread stealthily in pigs) may actually pose bigger risks.

Unlike avian flu, these viruses are already well adapted to mammals, and in many ways porcine physiology is remarkably similar to that of humans (see The pig: a model for human infectious diseases)

Swine flu viruses are primarily H1, H2, and H3 subtypes; all of which have a long track record of sparking human pandemics  (see Are Influenza Pandemic Viruses Members Of An Exclusive Club?).  

Many of the viruses circulating in pigs today are decedents of human flu viruses which spilled over into swine over the years. This sharing of viruses is a two-way street. 

Spillovers of swine variant viruses to humans are likely significantly under-reported, with some estimates suggesting less than 1% of cases are ever ever confirmed (see CID Journal: Estimates Of Human Infection From H3N2v (Jul 2011-Apr 2012).

Results. We estimate that the median multiplier for children was 200 (90% range, 115–369) and for adults was 255 (90% range, 152–479) and that 2055 (90% range, 1187–3800) illnesses from H3N2v virus infections may have occurred from August 2011 to April 2012, suggesting that the new virus was more widespread than previously thought. 

The CDC's IRAT (Influenza Risk Assessment Tool) lists 3 North American swine viruses as having at least some pandemic potential (2 added in 2019). 

H1N2 variant [A/California/62/2018]  Jul   2019   5.8  5.7 Moderate
H3N2 variant [A/Ohio/13/2017]          Jul   2019   6.6  5.8 Moderate
H3N2 variant [A/Indiana/08/2011]      Dec 2012   6.0  4.5 Moderate 

Since 2010 we've seen more than 500 scattered reports of human infection with swine variant influenza viruses (H1N1v, H1N2v & H3N2v) in the United States, often associated with agricultural exhibits at county and state fairs.

In addition to the 3 North American swine-variant viruses on the CDC's IRAT list, we continue to watch the evolution of China's EA H1N1 `G4' virus, Brazil's H1N2v virus, and emerging variants (and spillovers) in Europe (see ANSES Reports A `New' Swine Flu Virus Has Taken Over Other Genotypes in France).

But most of the world isn't bothering to test, or to share reports on, swine influenza.  

While most swine influenza infections are due to H1, H2, or H3, there are outliers, including H5N1 (see Preprint: Bovine Derived Clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI H5N1 Virus Causes Mild Disease and Limited Transmission in Pigs). 

Given their ability to concurrently carry multiple flu viruses, we've seen warnings (see Netherlands: Zoonoses Experts Council (DB-Z) Risk Assessment & Warning of Swine As `Mixing Vessels' For Avian Flu) that H5N1 could increase its pandemic threat by spreading (and evolving) in farmed swine.


Although we've only seen 1 swine-variant human infection reported so far in 2025 (see CDC FluView Week 5: Seasonal Flu Rising Again - 1 Novel (H1N2v) Flu Case In Iowa), summer and fall are prime time for spillovers. 

Every summer the CDC reminds the public of the risks of swine variant flu infections (see twitter/X post) , which are often associated with state and county fair attendance. 

First a link to their guidance page (follow the link for more resources), after which I'll have a brief postscript.
Take Action to Prevent the Spread of Flu Between Pigs and People Prevention

About
  • Influenza A viruses circulate among many different animals. Influenza A viruses that circulate among pigs are called swine influenza A viruses.
  • These viruses are different from influenza A viruses that spread among people and different from avian influenza A viruses.
  • While rare, influenza A viruses--including seasonal human A viruses and swine influenza A viruses--can spread from pigs to people and from people to pigs. When an influenza A virus that normally infects pigs is found in people, it is called a 'variant influenza' virus infection.
  • When people get variant flu, it's usually after contact with infected pigs or surfaces or environments contaminated with swine influenza A virus, such as a swine barn. These infections have occurred in different settings, including agricultural fairs.
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends people take the following actions to help prevent the spread of influenza A viruses between certain animals (including pigs) and people. While the content of this page focuses on pigs, similar precautions are recommended around poultry and dairy cows, which can carry and spread different influenza viruses called avian influenza A viruses.

Take Preventive Actions

  • People at increased risk for severe influenza complications should avoid exposure to pigs.
  • Don't eat, drink or put anything in your mouth in areas with pigs.
  • Don't take toys, pacifiers, cups, baby bottles, strollers, or similar items into areas with pigs.
  • Wash your hands with soap and running water before and after exposure to pigs outside or inside a swine barn. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand rub.
  • To further reduce the risk of infection, avoid or minimize contact with pigs in the pig barns and show arenas.
  • Where possible, avoid direct contact with pigs that are known or suspected to be sick. If you must come in contact with pigs that may be ill, then wear personal protective equipment (PPE). This includes protective clothing, gloves, and a well-fitting mask that covers your mouth and nose. Parents and caregivers should review considerations for specific groups of people when selecting a respirator or mask for children.
  • If you have a pig, watch for signs of illness (like loss of appetite, fever, tiredness, eye redness, discomfort, cough, or runny nose)If you suspect your pig is sick, call a veterinarian.
  • If sick pigs are in an exhibition area, remove them right away.
  • If possible, avoid close contact with sick pigs.
  • Avoid contact with pigs if you have flu symptoms. Wait to have contact with pigs until 7 days after your illness started or until you have been without fever for 24 hours without the use of fever-reducing medications, whichever is longer. If you must have contact with pigs while you are sick, take the preventive actions listed above.

Like everyone else, people who care for pigs should get a seasonal flu vaccine every flu season. Although a seasonal flu vaccine probably will not protect people against infection with variant influenza A viruses (because swine influenza A viruses are substantially different from seasonal influenza A viruses that infect people), vaccination is important to reduce the risk of spreading human seasonal influenza A viruses to other people and to pigs. Seasonal flu vaccination might also decrease the potential for people or pigs to become infected with human influenza A viruses and influenza A viruses from pigs at the same time.

People at Higher Risk
  • Anyone who is at higher risk of serious flu complications who plans to attend an event or setting where pigs will be present, such as an agricultural fair, should avoid pigs and swine barns.
  • If people at higher risk cannot avoid exposure to pigs, they should wear a well-fitting mask that covers the nose and mouth (e.g., an N95 respirator or KN95 respirator if available, or if not available, a surgical mask) to reduce the risk of exposure to influenza viruses from pigs.
  • People at higher risk of serious flu complications who develop flu symptoms should call a health care provider. Tell them about your risk factor and any exposure to pigs or swine barns you've had recently. Human seasonal flu vaccines will not protect against influenza A viruses that commonly spread in pigs, but prescription influenza antiviral drugs can treat infections with these viruses in people when treatment is started shortly after symptoms begin.

Recommendations for Fair Exhibitors

CDC guidance for people exhibiting animals including pigs, poultry, waterfowl, and cattle is available at Key Facts for People Exhibiting Pigs at Fairs.

 

While a swine variant pandemic might not prove to be as severe as one from an avian H5 or H7 virus, the likelihood of emergence of a swine-origin pandemic is considered higher. 

This `longshot' status for H5N1 is illustrated in the following CDC IRAT chart, placing our current H5N1 virus in 11th place (emergence score) among their top 24 zoonotic influenza viruses with pandemic potential.  

EA A(H1N1) `G4' - in Chinese pigs - is ranked #1, with a swine A/H3N2 ranked #2,  and another swine A/H3N2 (ranked #6) and an A/H1N2 (#7) all in the top ten.  The European 1C and Brazilian H1N2 variants aren't ranked by the CDC, but would probably make the top 20 threats. 

And of course, there are likely scores of other swine variants we don't know about, that are all own their own evolutionary paths.  Most will be failures, but it only takes one over-achiever to change our inter-pandemic status quo. 

The UK's Summer HPAI H5 Surge In Poultry

 
HPAI H5 Outbreaks July 25th-30th

#18,817

Typically summer is a slow time for avian flu, particularly in temperate zones.  Over the past week, however, the UK has reported no fewer than 4 new HPAI H5 outbreaks in poultry, scattered across their Kingdom. 

This is a significant uptick, since in 2024 the UK went from February to November without reporting a single H5 outbreak.  Previously, between May 12th and June 22nd 2025, the UK reported 6 infected premises. 

 

After a lull of just over a month, over the past 6 days the UK's Defra has reported:

Bird flu: near Attleborough, Breckland, Norfolk (AIV 2025/53)
type: Bird flu (avian influenza) Control zone restriction: In force
Control zone type: Protection zone and 1 others
Virus strain: H5N1
Opened: 30 July 2025

Bird flu: near Tiverton, Mid Devon, Devon (AIV 2025/52) 
type: Bird flu (avian influenza)
Control zone restriction: In force
Control zone type: Protection zone and 1 others
Virus strain: H5N1
Opened: 30 July 2025

type: Bird flu (avian influenza)
Control zone restriction: In force
Control zone type: Protection zone and 1 others
Virus strain: H5N1
Opened: 28 July 2025

type: Bird flu (avian influenza)
Control zone restriction: In force
Control zone type: Captive bird (monitoring) controlled zone
Virus strain: H5N1
Opened: 25 July 2025

Cases are well scattered across the Kingdom, and all are reported as HPAI H5N1.  

From Defra's most recent (July 21st) High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain and Europe, we see the following outbreak map showing increased activity in May-June-July in and around the UK. 

Map 3. HPAI events in domestic poultry and wild birds in Europe reported by WOAH between 12 May and 21 July 2025 (WOAH, 2025). Wild bird cases and poultry outbreaks are concentrated in Great Britain, Ireland and across the English Channel but only sporadic across eastern and central Europe with some cases in Spain and Portugal, as described in the main body of this report above.

This report was issued prior to the 4 most recent IPs (Infected premises), and after having gone 4 weeks (June 22nd-July 21st) without any outbreaks in poultry. 

In years past, that has suggested the expected summer lull in bird flu outbreaks had arrived.

In the report's conclusion, the authors wrote:
Since our last assessment on 12 May 2025 (HPAI in Great Britain and Europe May 2025),cases of HPAI H5Nx have continued in gulls and seabirds through June and into July. 

Therefore, the national risk level for HPAI H5 in wild birds is maintained at HIGH (occurs very often). Most of the wild bird cases in the last month have been coastal and not inland.
There have been no IPs in Great Britain for the last 4 weeks, with low numbers reported in the weeks preceding that. This suggests that the risk between infection in poultry and detection in wild birds is becoming decoupled as has been seen in previous years when HPAI H5 has over-summered in seabirds and gulls around the coast. 

The risk of infection of poultry in Great Britain with suboptimal biosecurity is therefore lowered to LOW (rare but does occur) with high uncertainty. The risk to poultry with stringent biosecurity is maintained at LOW (rare but does occur) with low uncertainty

A reasonable assessment given the patterns we've seen in recent years, and the relative drought of outbreaks reported on the Continent.  But as we've repeatedly seen, HPAI often throws curve balls.  

Whether this summer uptick is an aberration or a trend, is something we'll simply have to wait to see.  

But this is a reminder that our powers of prognostication when it comes to what avian flu will - or won't - do, remain quite limited.