Credit CDC
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Over the past six months we've been watching the slow shift away from the XBB variants that held sway last May when the fall COVID vaccine was created, and towards an antigenically shifted BA.2.86 and its offshoots like JN.1.
A bit unusually, we haven't seen a clearly dominant variant take charge as we have in the past. Instead we continue to see a large mixture of variants, with 2 or 3 leading the pack, but with none having enough strength to crowd out its competition.
This week, however, the JN.1 variant - which we've been watching closely since October - is suddenly making a move, moving up from 3rd place with 8.1% share two weeks ago to 2nd place and a 21.4% share this week.
In contrast to this 250% increase for JN.1, the #1 (HV.1) and #2 spots (EG.5) both lost ground since two weeks ago. Most of the other 20+ variants being tracked either diminished or remained the about the same (JD.1.1 being an exception, increasing slightly).
Ten days ago the CDC published an update on where the BA.2.68 variant (and its offshoots like JN.1) were expected to go:
Update on SARS-CoV-2 Variant BA.2.86 Being Tracked by CDC
November 27, 2023, 1:15 PM EDT
CDC is tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant called BA.2.86 and working to better understand its potential impact on public health.This update follows CDC’s most recent BA.2.86 update on September 15, 2023.
Find more information about virus trends in your area and tips to help you stay healthy during the holidays.
What to know about BA.2.86
- The virus that causes COVID-19 is constantly changing over time. Sometimes these changes allow new variants to spread more quickly or effectively. If that occurs, the new variant may become more common relative to other variants that are circulating.
- Since CDC’s first post on BA.2.86 in August 2023, the proportion of infections caused by BA.2.86 has slowly increased. In the CDC Nowcast posted Nov. 27, 2023, BA.2.86 is projected to account for 5-15% of currently circulating variants.
- CDC projects BA.2.86 and its offshoots like JN.1 will continue to increase as a proportion of SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences.
- At this time, BA.2.86 does not appear to be driving increases in infections or hospitalizations in the United States.
- CDC contributed to and agrees with the World Health Organization’s recent risk assessment about BA.2.86 suggesting that the public health risk posed by this variant is low compared with other circulating variants, based on available limited evidence.
- Updated COVID-19 vaccines are expected to increase protection against BA.2.86, as they do for other variants.
- As mentioned in previous updates, COVID-19 tests and treatments are expected to be effective against this variant, including its offshoot JN.1.
- It is not possible at this time to know whether BA.2.86 infection produces different symptoms from other variants. In general, symptoms of COVID-19 tend to be similar across variants. The types of symptoms and how severe they are usually depend more on a person’s immunity than which variant causes the infection.
- Regardless of what variants happen, CDC will continue to track them, working closely with partners around the world to understand how they are spreading and how they respond to vaccines and treatments.
We also looked at a preprint analysis that found that this fall's updated vaccine elicits `robust neutralizing antibodies' against these newer variants.
While that's definitely good news, only about 16% of the Eligible U.S. population has bothered to get the shot.
Although JN.1 appears to be destined to achieve dominance in the new year, given the rapid evolution of COVID variants around the world, its reign could be a short one.
