Friday, December 01, 2023

UK NHS: An Early Surge In Norovirus Hospitalizations

The busy 2022-2023 Norovirus Season

 #17,792

Last winter the UKHSA reported the Worst Norovirus Season In A Decade (see chart above), with the season's cumulative number of laboratory positive results running 31% higher than the 5-season average prior to the pandemic (2014/2015 to 2018/2019). 

Noroviruses, which are often mistakenly called `stomach flu’, are single-stranded RNA viruses that are able to evolve rapidly. Victims usually experience nausea, frequent vomiting & diarrhea, and stomach pain – and may also suffer from headache, fever, and body aches. 

The illness generally runs its course in 1 to 3 (very long) days, and most people recover fully. But among those who are aged or infirmed, the virus can take a heavy toll. According to the CDC, in the United States each year the norovirus produces:


While norovirus infections can occur anytime, they tend to be most common between November and April, and can increase the impact of an already busy winter cold/flu/COVID season.  

The peak of norovirus cases unusually isn't seen in the UK until January or February, but yesterday the NHS warned that hospitalizations are already running well ahead of this time last year.  

I've posted excerpts from an NHS news release below. I'll have a bit more after the break.

Hundreds of patients in hospital with norovirus ahead of winter
30 November 2023
The number of patients in hospital with norovirus last week was almost triple the number during the same period last winter, new NHS figures show today.

An average of 351 people were in hospital with diarrhoea and vomiting symptoms every day last week compared to 126 in the same week last year. There were also 13 children with the virus in hospital each day, compared to an average of just three for the same period in 2022.

New weekly figures published today and for the first time this winter, show the NHS is seeing high levels of demand in hospitals with evidence that winter pressures are already mounting on staff ahead of December.

NHS teams have worked hard to expand hospital capacity with almost 1,500 more beds open now (100,701) compared to the same week last year (99,243), but adult bed occupancy remains high at 95.3% with over 1,200 more patients in adult general and acute beds last week compared to the end of November 2022 (90,144 vs 88,902).

There was an average of 153 flu patients in general and acute hospital beds each day last week with seven a day in critical care, and an additional 131 children in hospital each day with RSV.

The weekly winter update also shows the hard work of staff and innovative measures to prepare for winter are paying off, with the time lost to ambulance handover delays reduced by more than a fifth on the same week last year (from 24,372 hours to 18,987), despite thousands more patients arriving via ambulance (up from 77,054 to 89,506).

There were 419,676 calls to the NHS 111 service last week, similar to 423,969 the same week last year. Yet thanks to measures to boost resilience and grow the number of call handlers, almost twice the proportion of calls answered were answered within a minute (from 36% to 67%).

However, challenges discharging patients who no longer need to be in hospital into settings such as social and community care are still having a considerable impact, with an average of 12,654 beds each day last week occupied by patients who were ready for discharge, taking up one in seven of all occupied adult general and acute beds (90,144).

The new data also shows that an average of 46,201 staff per day were off work sick last week, of which 1,715 absences were due to Covid-19.

Robust NHS plans for winter, set out earlier than ever before, have seen the nationwide rollout of care ‘traffic control’ centres, extra ambulances and beds and the rapid expansion use of the world-leading and innovative virtual ward programme, keeping patients out of hospitals and treating more people at home and in the community where appropriate.

(SNIP)

The weekly situation report publications can be found here: Statistics » Urgent and Emergency Care Daily Situation Reports 2023-24

The `standard’ mode of norovirus transmission is considered to be the fecal-oral route, but limited airborne transmission is suspected as well. In 2015, in CID Study: Airborne Norovirus In Healthcare Facilities, a study looked for - and found - norovirus in ambient air samples taken from 8 hospitals, both inside and outside of an infected patient’s room.

While the act of vomiting (see Vomiting Larry And His Aerosolized Norovirus) could account for this airborne infusion of the virus, the usual receptacle is a toilet, followed by a power flush (see Nature: Another Toilet Plume Study To Consider) which may also help disperse the virus through the air. 

All of which makes the rapid spread of norovirus the bane of crowded cruise ships, hospital wards, schools and households. Making matters worse, alcohol hand sanitizers are largely ineffective against norovirus (see Aye, There’s The Rub).  

While norovirus infection is mostly likely to produce an extremely unpleasant 24-48 hours for a healthy adult, it can be far more serious in young children and the elderly.  Globally, the CDC estimates:

Norovirus is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis, annually causing an estimated 685 million cases. About 200 million cases are seen among children under 5 years old, leading to an estimated 50,000 child deaths every year, mostly in developing countries.

Regardless of your current age or health, this is virus very much worth avoiding if at all possible.