Note: This is the 22nd day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.
This month, as part of NPM24, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.
#18,310
For the past week long range forecast models (GFS, EURO, CMC, etc.) have been hinting at the development of a tropical system in the CAG (Central American Gyre), an area which is particularly active in late Spring and again in early fall.
While nothing has formed yet, conditions appear ripe for development later this week, and overnight the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upped the chances for development to 70%.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Unless and until that system forms, models can only roughly approximate where it may go, meaning that a large swath of the gulf coast - from Texas to Florida - should be monitoring this situation. Likewise, the range of intensity at landfall in the models is equally wide.
Some models put this system approaching the Gulf coast 4 days from now, while others are looking more like a week out. Once it begins moving, however, it could move quickly.
Since I'm potentially in the path of this storm, I'll be making some last minute preparations - including being ready to evacuate if necessary - over the next few days. Luckily, I have a disaster buddy who will take me and the cat in.
While no one wants to evacuate, sometimes it truly is the better part of valor. Which is why Day 4 of National Hurricane Preparedness Week is all about how to develop a plan to evacuate you, your family, and your pets to a safe location.
Ready.gov has some specific advice on what to do before, during, and after an evacuation.
As traumatic as evacuation, or riding out a hurricane in your home, might be, often the toughest part comes After The Storm Passes.
Flood waters may also contain hidden hazards, like broken glass, metal, toxic chemicals, and even life-threatening bacteria (see CDC HAN: Severe Vibrio vulnificus Infections in the United States Associated with Warming Coastal Waters).
Last week, in #NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness, we looked at some steps you can take to prepare for extended power outages. It isn't too late to prepare, even if it is just making sure you have batteries for flashlights and lanterns.
Because of all of these potential impacts, I've scheduled my fall COVID booster for tomorrow morning, will top off my gas tank when I'm out, and will spend the next few days charging all of my batteries and devices, filling water containers, and making other last minute preps.
With a little bit of luck, this storm won't come my way. But it is increasingly likely it will impact some part of the Gulf coast in the next week.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
Stay tuned, get prepared, and stay safe.
For more preparedness information I would invite you to visit:
- FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
- READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
- AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
