Avian Flu Diary: NHC 8 am Update On PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) Nine

#18,315

PTC 9 continues to be slow to develop, but is still expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane by tomorrow. Forty-eight hours from now it is forecast to be a CAT 2/3 hurricane, passing about 100 miles to my west, on its way to a landfall in the big bend area of Florida.

A hurricane watch is now in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass (includes Tampa Bay).

This morning's 5 am discussion from the National Hurricane Center forecasts:

Even if this storm stays off the west Florida coast, significant (even life-threatening) storm surge can be expected from Flamingo (2-4 feet) on up the coast (max 15 feet). While no evacuations orders have been posted, a state of emergency has been declared, and I would expect some will be forthcoming later today.

The NHC has issued the following Key Messages:

Assuming all goes as forecast, I don't expect to have to evacuate. But I do expect large swaths of Florida to be without power for days, and I am preparing for that possibility. If I go offline for a few days, that will be the likely reason why.

For my fellow Floridians, the next 36 hours are about all the time you'll have to finish any preparations for this storm. Hopefully, it won't be as bad as some of the forecasts suggest, but every seasoned Floridian knows it is best to plan for a storm 1 category higher than forecast.

And even those who live in Georgia and South Carolina can expect significant impacts. While the winds may quickly diminish, inland flooding - sometimes hundreds of miles from landfall - can be devastating.

While the battering from the storm will likely last only a dozen or so hours, for the hardest hit the recovery period could take months (see After The Storm Passes).

Even though this year's hurricane season hasn't lived up to the pre-season hype, it still has 2 months go go, and it only takes one strong storm, hitting a highly populated region, to become a historic disaster.

Those lucky enough not to be in the path of this storm may want to take this as an opportunity to become better prepared before the next disaster hits. For more preparedness information I would invite you to visit: