NHC Key Messages For Potential Tropical Cyclone Six

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Conditions have been unexpectedly hostile for tropical cyclone development in the Eastern Atlantic this summer, resulting in far fewer storms than expected (see NOAA Predicts An Above Average 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season) - but the Atlantic Hurricane season still has > 11 weeks to run - and the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are often quite active late in the season. 

While it is not uncommon to watch a long-track Atlantic storm for a week or longer prior to landfall, storms that form in the Gulf or close to the Atlantic coast often only provide a couple of days of warning. Sometimes these storm can see rapid intensification just prior to landfall, making intensity forecasts difficult.

In the case of PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) 6, as of 1 am this morning, it remains an unnamed disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, but most models (GFS, EURO, CMC) bring it into the Louisiana or Upper Texas coast as a hurricane on Wednesday. 

Exactly how strong it will be at landfall, and precisely where and when that will be, are still subject to change, but the NHC has issued the following key messages for those who live or work in its projected path. 

No watches or warnings have been issued (excerpt for T.S. watches in northern Mexico and Southern Texas), but that could change later today.  Residents of Louisiana and the upper Texas coast may only have today and tomorrow to prepare, as conditions should begin to deteriorate during the day on Wednesday. 

As we've discussed many times, the dangers from a hurricane often increase in the days and weeks after the storm has passed, due to injuries or illness that occur during the `recovery' period.

Some of the many dangers include:

• Flood waters which may linger for days, and may contain toxic chemicals, dangerous viruses and bacteria, and hidden hazards like snakes, rats, broken glass, sharp metal, and even live electrical wires (see CDC Web page on the dangers of Flood Waters or Standing Waters)
• Carbon Monoxide Poisoning (see CDC HAN 00415: Hurricane Florence — Clinical Guidance For Carbon Monoxide (CO) Poisoning)
• Food poisoning (see A Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes)
• Chain saw accidents (see Preventing Chain Saw Injuries During Tree Removal After a Disaster)
• Toxic mold and mildew (see CDC Mold After a Disaster).
• And even psychological impacts (including PTSD) (see Sandy 1 Year Later: Coping With The Aftermath).

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season, your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. 

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.