#18,343
In their 5 am advisory, the NHC posted Hurricane & Tropical storm watches for the entire west coast of Florida in anticipation of the arrival of Hurricane Milton late Wednesday afternoon. As the graphic above shows, Hurricane conditions are expected well inland.
Milton, currently a CAT 3 storm still in the far western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to grow to a CAT 4 or 5 storm over the next 36 hours, but is forecast to weaken somewhat before landfall. Probably to a CAT 3 or (hopefully) lower.
But even if that happens, it will be pushing a massive wall of water ahead of it towards the coast. Record surge tides are expected to the right of where the eye makes landfall, but exactly where that will be is still unknown.
Because of this uncertainty, a lot of people are going to be forced to evacuate low-lying coastal areas, even though some may be spared the worst. While surge is the biggest risk to life and property, the effects of Milton are likely to be widespread and long-lasting.
Extended power outages are inevitable. Millions are likely to find themselves without power, water, internet, or sewer for days or even weeks. Others may find their homes flooded, or damaged from high winds, and unlivable without extensive repairs.
As far as what people can expect inland, away from the coast the National Weather Service has released this local product:
For the purple colored regions they forecast:
Threat Level - Potential for wind greater than 110 mph
Potential Impacts Include:
*Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
*Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
*Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
*Widespread power and communications outages.
For the red colored area:
Threat Level - Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph
Potential Impacts Include:
*Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
*Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
*Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
*Large areas with power and communications outages.
While not everyone in these warned areas will see these extreme conditions, everyone in Milton's path needs to prepare as if they could.
Since I live in a mobile home in the red area, I'll be evacuating to a friend's house (also in the red area). Luckily, I'm well inland and don't have to worry about flood damage to my home, but the wind is another matter.
As I've written often, most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping. Living without power, internet, heat or A/C, running water (and sometimes even flushing toilets) . . . sometimes for weeks. Most of my preps are built upon that premise.
While the 12 hours or so that Milton pounds Florida will be traumatic and damaging, the biggest dangers from a hurricane often come in the days and weeks after the storm has passed, due to injuries or illness that occur during the `recovery' period.
Some of the many dangers include:
- Carbon Monoxide Poisoning (see CDC HAN 00415: Hurricane Florence — Clinical Guidance For Carbon Monoxide (CO) Poisoning)
- Food poisoning (see A Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes)
- Chain saw accidents (see Preventing Chain Saw Injuries During Tree Removal After a Disaster)
- Toxic mold and mildew (see CDC Mold After a Disaster).
- And even psychological impacts (including PTSD) (see Sandy 1 Year Later: Coping With The Aftermath).
The CDC maintains a web page on the dangers of Flood Waters or Standing Waters and in 2022 we looked at Florida: Uptick Of Vibrio Infections Following Hurricane Ian.
And lastly, the physical and mental impact of a major disaster should not be underestimated. Many people are going to lose their homes, businesses, and their savings due to this storm.
In March of 2009, in a study led by Dr. Anand Irimpen (Associate Professor of clinical medicine at Tulane), it was disclosed that residents of New Orleans saw a 300% increase in heart attacks in the first 2 years after hurricane Katrina.
A follow up, published in 2014 (see Tulane University: Post-Katrina Heart Attack Rates - Revisited), once again found the impact of Katrina on cardiac health remained pronounced.
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, a study funded by the National Institute of Mental Health, which surveyed 1,043 survivors, found:
- More than 11% were diagnosed with a serious mental illness following the storm. This compares to just over 6% before the hurricane.
- 9.9% had mild-moderate mental illness, compared to 9.7% before Katrina.
- They estimated 200,000 people facing serious mental problems, such as PTSS (Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome) and depression, in the three states most affected.
In 2014, in Post-Disaster Stress Cardiomyopathy: A Broken-Hearted Malady, we looked at a rare condition known as Takotsubo cardiomyopathy – or stress induced cardiomyopathy which is often linked to extreme grief or stress, as might be experienced following a disaster.
Also known as broken heart syndrome, this acute ballooning of the heart ventricles is a well-recognized cause of acute heart failure and dangerous cardiac arrhythmia's.
While often hidden from view, the psychological impact of a disaster can be enormous and ongoing. In 2011, in Post Disaster Stress & Suicide Rates, we looked at the impacts of disaster-related PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder).
A small reminder that in the wake of a disaster not all wounds bleed, not all fractures show up on an X-ray, and that the best treatment can't always be found inside your first aid kit.