Wednesday, December 04, 2024

A Mid-Week Snapshot of H5N1


 #18,463


The CDC has updated their H5N1 case count this afternoon after California reported their 32nd case, bringing the CDC's total to 58 confirmed cases since last March.   This number, however, has a large number of asterisks attached. 

It does not include 4 cases confirmed by state labs but not by the CDC, nor does it include the 2nd, strongly suspected case in Missouri, or the 8 asymptomatic and/or mild cases retrospectively identified by serological testing.

When you add in the anecdotal reports of symptomatic farm workers who were never tested - and the MMWR report (see Serologic Evidence of Recent Infection with HPAI A(H5) Virus Among Dairy Workers) which found 7% of exposed dairy farm workers in Michigan and Colorado had serologic evidence of infection with HPAI A(H5) - the actual numbers are likely to be far higher. 

The USDA has also updated their number of infected dairy herds across the country, crossing the 700 mark nationally, and with 493 (70%) of those from California.  Given the lack of nationwide mandatory testing, the actual number is thought to be much higher as well. 


Only a handful of states (Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma) have elected to order mandatory bulk milk testing for the H5 virus.  Due to a `Don't test, don't tell' policy in many states, the real extent of the spread of H5N1 in livestock is unknown. 

The USDA has also released the last update for poultry outbreaks during the month of November, and that month closed out with nearly a 100-fold increase in poultry losses over last September. 



Despite this heightened HPAI  activity in poultry, dairy cattle, and humans the number of submissions by states to the USDA for wildlife detections has plummeted in recent months.  After submitting nearly 200 cases between May and July, only 5 have been added in the past 90 days.



While I don't know what accounts for this sudden drop off in submissions, what is happening with the virus in wildlife is an important part of the avian flu puzzle, and we ignore it at our considerable peril. 

Meanwhile - regardless of what rationale we use to dictate surveillance and reporting - H5N1 marches on.