#18,958
Not quite 5 years ago (Feb 2021) 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).
At least 4.5 million homes were without power during a week of bitter winter temperatures, resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).
In their previous (2021) assessment, the ASCE gave the U.S. electrical grid a C-, so this is not a reassuring trajectory.
In the fall of 2024, a preprint (see Establishing Nationwide Power System Vulnerability Index across US Counties Using Interpretable Machine Learning) - recently published in Applied Energy - warned on the increasing vulnerability of of the U.S. power grid over the past decade.
They identified `. . . 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas)'
And last summer, the U.S. Department of Energy published a 73-page report that warns that if current schedules for retirement of reliable power generation (especially baseload) continue, without enough firm replacement, the risk of blackouts in 2030 could increase by 100× over current levels.
Number one on their Key Takeaways is:
Status Quo is Unsustainable. The status quo of more generation retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability (ensuring “resource adequacy”).
Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens.
Their words, not mine.
In addition to ageing infrastructure, and ever increasing power demands, there are threats from cyber attacks (see DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report), solar flares and CMEs (see FEMA: Preparing the Nation for Space Weather Events), and even potential disruptions due to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.These are serious enough threats that in December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.
It is the job of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to "ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system", a mandate given to it in 2006 as a result of the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada.
Last week NERC released 56-page winter reliability assessment, which warns that:
Rising Demand, Evolving Resources Continue to Challenge Winter Grid Reliability
November 18, 2025
WASHINGTON, D.C.—NERC’s 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA) finds that much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions. Although resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging. This is largely due to rising electricity demand, which has grown by 20 GW since last winter, significantly outpacing winter on-peak capacity. This, coupled with the changing resource mix, is affecting the winter outlook.
“Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts by as much as 25%--as we saw in 2021 in ERCOT and SPP,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis. “This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions.”
(SNIP)
This year’s assessment, previewed in the 2025-2026 WRA video and summarized in the WRA infographic, makes a series of recommendations to reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on the bulk power system this winter:Cold Weather Preparations: Reliability Coordinators (RC), Balancing Authorities (BA), and Transmission Operators (TOP) in the elevated risk areas should review seasonal operating plans and protocols for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls in anticipation of potentially high generator outages and extreme demand levels. Operators should review NERC’s Resources on Cold Weather Preparations.
While there is admittedly not much you or I can do about the state of the power grid, we can all prepare for outages, particularly during times of severe weather. Ready.gov has a #WinterReady Preparedness page, with helpful advice on preparing for extreme cold.
My `standard advice' is that everyone should strive to have the ability to withstand 7 to 10 days without power and water.
Recommended preps include:
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
Some of my preparedness blogs on how to become better prepared in case the lights go out include:
Being prepared for prolonged power outages won't guarantee you and your loved ones will come through a major disaster unscathed. But it is relatively cheap insurance.The Gift of Preparedness - Winter 2023 Edition
